Toledo Rockets
Next: vs Michigan St · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 60-75 · Game page
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14
Net rating+0.2Rank 141 of 363 · offence 169, defence 109
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-14 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 7%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Louisiana Techrank 94 | Home | 54% | 79-78 | L 57-61 | Wrong |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs Michigan Staterank 28 | Home | 12% | 60-75 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov11 AM ET | vs Youngstown Staterank 158 | Home | 68% | 66-60 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Michigan StateA win: 10% · a loss: 8%+2 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Youngstown StateA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella WeaverG | 1 | 33.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.8 |
| Kendall CarruthersG | 1 | 31.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | +0.4 | +1.5 |
| Natiah NelsonG · transfer from DePaul | 1 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 |
| Jyah LoVettG · transfer from Arizona St | 1 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 |
| Evalyse ColeF | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| Reagan WilsonG · transfer from Iowa State | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +2.3 | +1.6 |
| Destiny RobinsonG | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Judit Oliva FernandezF · transfer from Long Beach St | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −4.4 | −0.4 |
| Kiera EdmondsF · transfer from Boston College | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Lizzy PuotF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.7%rank 284 | 45.6%rank 296 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.8%rank 305 | 23.4%rank 271 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.5%rank 280 | 32.7%rank 93 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 17.6%rank 357 | 20.2%rank 136 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.4 points a game (they shot 18.2%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +1.4
- Last season's net rating
- +2.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 64%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- −1.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.2 (rank 169)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 89.1 (rank 109)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 186)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +6.3 (rank 87)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 2-0 | 0-0 | +9.5 | 91.7 | 82.3 | 80 |
| 2 | Ball State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.8 | 96.9 | 89.1 | 88 |
| 3 | Massachusetts | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.5 | 91.1 | 90.5 | 137 |
| 4 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.2 | 89.2 | 89.1 | 141 |
| 5 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 90.0 | 90.9 | 148 |
| 6 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 87.4 | 89.4 | 159 |
| 7 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 91.1 | 94.2 | 174 |
| 8 | Central Michigan | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 82.6 | 90.0 | 207 |
| 9 | Eastern Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.1 | 86.5 | 96.6 | 233 |
| 10 | Buffalo | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.2 | 86.7 | 98.9 | 257 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 81.2 | 93.5 | 259 |
| 12 | Akron | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 87.0 | 100.2 | 269 |