Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters

Women's · Sun Belt Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at McNeese · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Louisiana Tech71%29%McNeese

Projected 67-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-10

Net rating+6.3Rank 94 of 363 · offence 101, defence 89

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-10 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 16%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 12.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field19%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Toledorank 141	Away	46%	78-79	W 61-57	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	vs Texas A&M-Texarkananot Division I	Home	—	—	W 90-41
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at McNeeserank 216	Away	71%	67-60	—
Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Northwestern Staterank 253	Home	92%	73-53	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 19% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at McNeeseA win: 19% · a loss: 18%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Northwestern StateA win: 19% · a loss: 20%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Brittani WellsG · transfer from UT Martin	2	30.0	12.0	1.5	6.0	−0.9	+0.7
Alexia WeaverG	2	29.5	10.5	2.0	2.5	+1.6	+2.0
Kaleigh ThompsonG	2	29.0	5.0	6.0	1.5	+2.5	+2.4
Alana ObianozieG	2	26.0	11.5	7.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.5
Jordan MarshallF	2	24.0	12.0	7.5	0.5	+4.5	+2.9
Joy Madison-KeyG	2	21.0	5.5	3.5	1.0	+2.0	+1.6
Pressley PowellG	2	12.5	0.0	1.5	1.0	−0.8	+0.3
E'Marriha JohnsonF	2	9.5	7.5	2.5	0.5	−0.6	+0.3
Hillary DawsonF	2	8.0	8.0	1.5	0.0	+3.7	+0.8
Isla AireyF	2	7.5	3.5	5.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.7
Jordyn McNealF	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.7%rank 61	43.7%rank 70	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.3%rank 92	24.8%rank 55	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.7%rank 276	32.5%rank 76	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.3%rank 231	17.6%rank 7	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.4 points a game (they shot 22.6%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.0
Last season's net rating: +12.7
Last season's minutes returning: 55%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.8
Change since preseason: +1.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 94.4 (rank 101)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.1 (rank 89)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 286)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +0.2 (rank 122)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	James Madison	0-1	0-0	+15.4	97.6	82.2	56
2	Louisiana Tech	2-0	0-0	+6.3	94.4	88.1	94
3	Troy	1-0	0-0	+3.7	94.9	91.2	109
4	Coastal Carolina	2-0	0-0	+2.8	90.9	88.1	112
5	Marshall	1-0	0-0	+2.1	93.3	91.2	120
6	Arkansas State	0-1	0-0	+1.4	91.5	90.1	128
7	App State	2-0	0-0	−0.3	90.0	90.3	145
8	Georgia Southern	0-1	0-0	−1.8	90.7	92.5	158
9	Old Dominion	1-0	0-0	−2.8	86.8	89.5	170
10	Southern Miss	1-0	0-0	−7.7	88.2	95.9	208
11	South Alabama	1-0	0-0	−9.1	87.9	96.9	220
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−9.8	89.3	99.1	229
13	Louisiana	1-0	0-0	−10.9	83.3	94.2	238
14	UL Monroe	0-1	0-0	−13.3	79.9	93.2	273