Troy Trojans
Next: vs Thomas · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-11
Net rating+3.7Rank 108 of 363 · offence 95, defence 140
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-11 (15 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 13%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Kent Staterank 176 | Away | 47% | 84-85 | W 89-78 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Thomasnot Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Mississippi Staterank 36 | Away | 6% | 61-82 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at Mississippi StateA win: 20% · a loss: 12%+8 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aniya HubbardG | 1 | 33.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +1.2 |
| Tiauna KingG | 1 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −0.1 | +1.2 |
| Saniya JacksonG | 1 | 28.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | +3.1 | +2.9 |
| Shakirah EdwardsG | 1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +2.2 | +1.9 |
| Hannah SmithG | 1 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.1 | +0.9 |
| Maliyah MeeksF | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 |
| Jamonica ChambersF | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| Kimora HughesG | 1 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Tayla BarrosG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Detavia SalterF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.9 | +0.3 |
| Riana CallihanF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| Taliah MartinF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.0%rank 19 | 43.3%rank 43 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.8%rank 57 | 22.8%rank 307 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 236 | 30.9%rank 17 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.9%rank 100 | 22.3%rank 330 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.5 points a game (they shot 20.8%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +2.4
- Last season's net rating
- +13.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 17%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.7
- Change since preseason
- +1.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.0 (rank 95)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 91.2 (rank 140)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 77.3 (rank 3)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −3.1 (rank 150)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | +15.5 | 97.7 | 82.3 | 55 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 94.5 | 88.2 | 94 |
| 3 | Troy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 95.0 | 91.2 | 108 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 91.0 | 88.2 | 112 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.1 | 93.4 | 91.3 | 120 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 91.6 | 90.2 | 127 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 90.1 | 90.4 | 144 |
| 8 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 90.8 | 92.6 | 157 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 86.8 | 89.6 | 169 |
| 10 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.3 | 96.0 | 208 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 88.0 | 97.0 | 220 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 89.4 | 99.1 | 229 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.4 | 94.3 | 238 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 80.0 | 93.3 | 273 |