Marshall Thundering Herd
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating+2.1Rank 120 of 363 · offence 111, defence 142
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (13 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Massachusettsrank 138 | Away | 25% | 74-83 | W 74-70 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET | vs North Carolina A&Trank 231 | Home | 86% | 73-58 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET | vs Howardrank 118 | Home | 64% | 71-66 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov11 AM ET | vs West Virginia Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs North Carolina A&TA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs HowardA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassie GallagherG · transfer from SC Upstate | 1 | 34.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −0.9 | +0.8 |
| Paris GilmoreG · transfer from UMass Lowell | 1 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −4.9 | −1.7 |
| Kassie IngramG | 1 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +1.6 | +1.9 |
| Olivia OlsonG | 1 | 28.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +2.7 | +2.5 |
| Ni'Kiah ChesterfieldF | 1 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +3.6 | +2.6 |
| Leyocha MarigneyF | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 | +1.8 |
| Anaya HarrisG · transfer from Gardner-Webb | 1 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Maddie MoodyF · transfer from N Kentucky | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 | +1.0 |
| Emily BrattonG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.6%rank 31 | 43.6%rank 60 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 133 | 24.5%rank 73 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.0%rank 262 | 34.5%rank 285 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.6%rank 61 | 19.1%rank 61 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.2 expected (+0.8)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.2 points a game (they shot 31.8%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.8
- Last season's net rating
- +10.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 26%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −9.8
- Change since preseason
- +3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 93.4 (rank 111)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 91.3 (rank 142)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 213)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +0.6 (rank 118)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | +15.5 | 97.7 | 82.3 | 55 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 94.5 | 88.2 | 94 |
| 3 | Troy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 95.0 | 91.2 | 108 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 91.0 | 88.2 | 112 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.1 | 93.4 | 91.3 | 120 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 91.6 | 90.2 | 127 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 90.1 | 90.4 | 144 |
| 8 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 90.8 | 92.6 | 157 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 86.8 | 89.6 | 169 |
| 10 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.3 | 96.0 | 208 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 88.0 | 97.0 | 220 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 89.4 | 99.1 | 229 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.4 | 94.3 | 238 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 80.0 | 93.3 | 273 |