Howard Bison

Women's · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Elon · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Elon20%80%Howard

Projected 73-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament66%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-9

Net rating+2.3Rank 118 of 363 · offence 115, defence 135

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-9 (19 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-1
Wins or shares the conference title: 81%
Wins the conference tournament: 65%
Average seed if in the field: 14.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field66%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Missourirank 90	Away	16%	76-90	L 88-91	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Elonrank 196	Home	80%	73-61	—
Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET	at Marshallrank 120	Away	36%	66-71	—
Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Iowa Staterank 62	Away	13%	64-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 66% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs ElonA win: 66% · a loss: 65%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at MarshallA win: 67% · a loss: 65%+2 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Iowa StateA win: 67% · a loss: 65%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sa'lah HemingwayF	1	33.0	13.0	3.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.6
Destiny Bynum-JohnsonG	1	33.0	13.0	11.0	3.0	+0.6	+1.7
April EdwardsG	1	31.0	15.0	3.0	3.0	−1.1	+0.6
Zoe StewartG	1	28.0	14.0	2.0	2.0	+1.6	+2.0
Rayne DurantF	1	25.0	7.0	10.0	0.0	+0.5	+1.2
Indiah HutchinsonG	1	22.0	12.0	2.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.7
Saniya JonesF	1	20.0	8.0	10.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.6
Ariella HeniganG	1	16.0	4.0	2.0	6.0	+2.0	+1.2
Kearra JonesF · transfer from SE Missouri	1	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.0
Jada KendrickF	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.2
Dally MorenoF	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.3%rank 39	43.2%rank 42	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.6%rank 46	23.7%rank 228	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.9%rank 56	33.8%rank 247	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.0%rank 98	22.7%rank 337	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.9 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −0.4
Last season's net rating: +1.5
Last season's minutes returning: 70%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.9
Change since preseason: +2.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.1 (rank 115)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.8 (rank 135)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.1 (rank 92)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +7.6 (rank 84)

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Howard	0-1	0-0	+2.3	93.1	90.8	118
2	Norfolk State	1-1	0-0	−6.7	85.2	91.8	201
3	Maryland Eastern Shore	0-1	0-0	−16.5	78.6	95.1	298
4	Coppin State	1-0	0-0	−18.0	78.6	96.6	310
5	North Carolina Central	1-1	0-0	−20.8	74.6	95.4	330
6	Morgan State	1-1	0-0	−25.4	74.7	100.1	347
7	Delaware State	1-1	0-0	−27.4	73.3	100.8	354
8	South Carolina State	1-0	0-0	−31.2	71.5	102.7	360