Norfolk State Spartans

Women's · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Penn · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Penn65%35%Norfolk St

Projected 62-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament24%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14

Net rating−6.7Rank 201 of 363 · offence 236, defence 157

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 29%
Wins the conference tournament: 24%
Average seed if in the field: 15.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field24%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Virginia Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	L 62-63
Wed 4 Nov	vs District of Columbianot Division I	Home	—	—	W 62-51
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Pennsylvaniarank 100	Home	35%	62-68	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Dukerank 12	Home	2%	51-82	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 24% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs PennsylvaniaA win: 26% · a loss: 24%+2 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs DukeA win: 22% · a loss: 24%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Asia KeelsG	2	32.5	4.0	4.0	1.5	−2.1	0.0
Cire WorleyG	2	32.0	8.5	4.0	3.0	−1.6	+0.3
Sana'a GarrettG · transfer from Hofstra	2	32.0	11.5	5.0	4.0	−3.6	−0.8
LeAire NicksC	2	25.5	9.0	5.5	1.0	−1.1	+0.5
Alexis DavisF · transfer from Monmouth	2	20.0	7.0	7.0	0.0	+1.2	+1.2
Jizelle JamesG	1	36.0	19.0	6.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.5
Clemisha PrackettF · transfer from Indiana St	2	13.0	10.0	4.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.8
LaChelle Moreland-JonesG	2	9.5	0.5	1.0	0.5	−1.2	+0.2
Brooklyn TaylorG · transfer from Sacramento St	2	6.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	+1.4	+0.4
Dahni SuggsF	2	6.0	2.0	2.5	0.5	−0.9	+0.1
Elise McClainG	2	5.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 135	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 140	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −6.7
Last season's net rating: −3.7
Last season's minutes returning: 28%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −7.2
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 85.2 (rank 236)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.8 (rank 157)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 73)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Howard	0-1	0-0	+2.3	93.1	90.8	118
2	Norfolk State	1-1	0-0	−6.7	85.2	91.8	201
3	Maryland Eastern Shore	0-1	0-0	−16.5	78.6	95.1	298
4	Coppin State	1-0	0-0	−18.0	78.6	96.6	310
5	North Carolina Central	1-1	0-0	−20.8	74.6	95.4	330
6	Morgan State	1-1	0-0	−25.4	74.7	100.1	347
7	Delaware State	1-1	0-0	−27.4	73.3	100.8	354
8	South Carolina State	1-0	0-0	−31.2	71.5	102.7	360