Duke Blue Devils

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs North Texas · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Duke98%2%North Texas

Projected 81-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament95%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.3

Wins the national title1%Final Four 12% · projected 24-7

Net rating+33.5Rank 12 of 363 · offence 19, defence 4

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-7 (20 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 34%
Wins the conference tournament: 23%
Average seed if in the field: 3.3
A 1 seed: 14%

Makes the field95%
Round of 3290%
Sweet 1665%
Elite Eight31%
Final Four12%
Title game4%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Green Bayrank 83	Home	99%	83-52	W 76-60	Right
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs North Texasrank 119	Neutral	98%	81-55	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	at Norfolk Staterank 201	Away	98%	82-51	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 95% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs North TexasA win: 95% · a loss: 95%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Norfolk StateA win: 96% · a loss: 89%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aaliyah CrumpG · transfer from Texas	1	34.0	11.0	5.0	6.0	+8.8	+6.8
Riley NelsonG	1	28.0	15.0	3.0	0.0	+7.2	+4.8
Delaney ThomasF	1	26.0	10.0	7.0	0.0	+10.9	+6.3
Arianna RobersonC	1	23.0	15.0	5.0	1.0	+9.4	+4.9
Emilee SkinnerG	1	22.0	8.0	6.0	5.0	+4.8	+2.8
Autumn FlearyG	1	20.0	9.0	3.0	3.0	+0.5	+1.0
Jordan WoodF	1	17.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	+7.3	+3.0
Jadyn DonovanG	1	15.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	+6.0	+2.2
Bella FlemingsG	1	15.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.8

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.1%rank 109	44.4%rank 111	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.2%rank 276	22.8%rank 313	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.6%rank 132	32.6%rank 80	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.4%rank 286	21.8%rank 309	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.3 points a game (they shot 30.4%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +36.2
Last season's net rating: +40.0
Last season's minutes returning: 64%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.8
Change since preseason: −2.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.5 (rank 19)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 75.0 (rank 4)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.7 (rank 123)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +9.0 (rank 80)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188