California Golden Bears

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Long Beach St · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET

Long Beach St0%100%California

Projected 87-46 · Game page

Makes the tournament70%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 23-9

Net rating+22.4Rank 32 of 363 · offence 38, defence 30

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-9 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 6.7
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field70%
Round of 3246%
Sweet 1612%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Washington Staterank 135	Home	96%	93-69	W 80-58	Right
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET	vs Long Beach Staterank 324	Home	100%	87-46	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs San Franciscorank 124	Neutral	91%	79-61	—
Thu 12 Nov2 PM ET	vs Charlestonrank 172	Home	97%	81-54	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 70% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs San FranciscoA win: 70% · a loss: 67%+4 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs CharlestonA win: 70% · a loss: 71%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Lulu TwidaleG	1	34.0	26.0	8.0	3.0	+5.7	+4.9
Ruby PerkinsG	1	30.0	4.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	+1.2
Taylor BarnesF	1	28.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	+4.9	+3.6
Gisella MaulG	1	27.0	9.0	4.0	2.0	+6.8	+4.4
Shannon DowellG · transfer from Missouri	1	23.0	17.0	7.0	2.0	+5.6	+3.3
Albina SylaC · transfer from Rhode Island	1	17.0	4.0	6.0	4.0	+7.5	+3.0
Naya OjukwuF	1	12.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	+7.4	+2.1
Zara RussellF	1	11.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.5
Jovana JevtovicC	1	11.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.5
Anastasia DrosouniG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+3.5	+0.3
Carly AmbornG · transfer from Stanford	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+5.1	+0.3
Sofia BowesG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.4	+0.1
Anna LagonikakiC	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 240	44.6%rank 127	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.4%rank 38	21.4%rank 358	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.2%rank 338	30.7%rank 9	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.2%rank 86	18.1%rank 13	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.5 points a game (they shot 29.2%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.4
Last season's net rating: +20.0
Last season's minutes returning: 64%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.9
Change since preseason: −0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.6 (rank 38)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 81.2 (rank 30)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 213)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +0.6 (rank 115)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188