Long Beach State Beach
Next: vs Santa Clara · Mon 9 Nov, 9 PM ETProjected 57-86 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 6-26
Net rating−22.2Rank 339 of 363 · offence 298, defence 350
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 6-26 (2 to 11 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-18
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 0%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Chance of making the field, day by day
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov | at Californiarank 28 | Away | 0% | 45-86 | L 46-100 | Right |
| Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET | vs Santa Clararank 52 | Home | 1% | 57-86 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Santa ClaraA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noemi ArvaiF | 1 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −1.0 |
| Rosie AkotF | 1 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −6.7 | −2.2 |
| Amber FurchG | 1 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −1.0 |
| Lucia Chico FernandezG | 1 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.2 | −0.9 |
| Kailyn BerryF | 1 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −4.1 | −0.8 |
| Ashanti DiasG | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −4.0 | −0.7 |
| Danijela KujovicF · transfer from Hawai'i | 1 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| Ebony Taylor-SmithG | 1 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.5 |
| Fia ProctorF · transfer from Seattle U | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | −0.6 |
| Malia TaulaniG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.1 |
| Aryanna ReyesG | 1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.5%rank 281 | 47.1%rank 350 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 146 | 22.6%rank 318 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.7%rank 236 | 34.4%rank 280 | 33.2% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.2%rank 301 | 18.4%rank 27 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −12.4 points a game (they shot 45.8%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.7
- Last season's net rating
- −22.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 10%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.2
- Change since preseason
- −2.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.5 (rank 298)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 102.8 (rank 350)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 176)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +24.5 (rank 30)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-1 | 0-0 | +4.0 | 91.7 | 87.7 | 103 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.2 | 90.5 | 87.4 | 110 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 2-0 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 90.3 | 89.2 | 132 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 92.3 | 93.6 | 152 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 87.8 | 90.7 | 172 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.0 | 92.3 | 215 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.4 | 95.4 | 241 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.4 | 95.1 | 249 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.2 | 96.9 | 301 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 2-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.2 | 98.5 | 315 |
| 11 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 76.9 | 99.2 | 339 |
| 12 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 80.5 | 102.8 | 339 |