Long Beach State Beach
Next: at California · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ETProjected 45-86 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 7-25
Net rating−19.7Rank 325 of 363 · offence 310, defence 318
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 7-25 (3 to 13 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-17
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET | at Californiarank 32 | Away | 0% | 45-86 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET | vs Santa Clararank 52 | Home | 3% | 56-84 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Santa ClaraA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 148 | 44.7%rank 141 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 167 | 23.9%rank 138 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.3%rank 147 | 33.3%rank 147 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 147 | 20.8%rank 154 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.7
- Last season's net rating
- −22.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 10%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.2
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 79.9 (rank 310)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 99.6 (rank 318)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.1 (rank 172)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.8 | 88.8 | 94 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 90.6 | 87.1 | 108 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.7 | 91.9 | 145 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.4 | 92.4 | 93.8 | 151 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 87.9 | 90.9 | 171 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.2 | 92.5 | 215 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 84.5 | 95.6 | 241 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.6 | 95.3 | 248 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.4 | 97.0 | 300 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.4 | 98.7 | 315 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.9 | 99.6 | 325 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 77.1 | 99.3 | 340 |