Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Women's · Big West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Washington · Thu 12 Nov, 10 PM ET

Bakersfield0%100%Washington

Projected 42-89 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-26

Net rating−22.2Rank 338 of 363 · offence 338, defence 313

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 8-26 (3 to 13 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-18
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Stanislaus Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 75-46
Thu 12 Nov10 PM ET	at Washingtonrank 24	Away	0%	42-89	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Madison JohnsonG	1	30.0	10.0	2.0	3.0	−4.2	−1.1
Elyse MitchellG	1	26.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−4.2	−1.0
Nseije OrtizG	1	25.0	5.0	2.0	2.0	−4.1	−0.9
Aloni OliverG · transfer from Fresno St	1	24.0	7.0	4.0	0.0	−4.4	−1.0
Mydrea MooreF	1	22.0	13.0	2.0	2.0	−4.0	−0.8
Dresha MooreF · transfer from San Diego	1	20.0	11.0	4.0	0.0	−6.3	−1.5
Elizabeth JohnsonF	1	17.0	14.0	15.0	3.0	−3.9	−0.5
Faith CurryG · transfer from N Arizona	1	13.0	5.0	4.0	1.0	−6.2	−1.0
Sofia AhmedF	1	12.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	−3.8	−0.4
Gianna GhioG	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−3.7	−0.2
DJ KendrickG	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 143	44.6%rank 134	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 154	23.9%rank 129	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.4%rank 141	33.4%rank 137	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 139	20.4%rank 146	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −22.2
Last season's net rating: −16.9
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 76.9 (rank 338)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.1 (rank 313)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.9 (rank 106)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big West Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UC Irvine	0-0	0-0	+6.0	94.6	88.6	96
2	UC San Diego	0-1	0-0	+3.5	90.4	86.9	110
3	UC Santa Barbara	1-0	0-0	−0.2	91.5	91.7	142
4	California Baptist	1-0	0-0	−1.3	92.2	93.5	151
5	Sacramento State	1-0	0-0	−4.2	87.6	91.8	185
6	Utah Valley	1-0	0-0	−8.3	83.9	92.3	215
7	Cal State Fullerton	1-1	0-0	−11.0	84.3	95.3	242
8	UC Riverside	1-0	0-0	−11.7	83.4	95.1	250
9	Cal State Northridge	1-0	0-0	−16.7	80.2	96.8	299
10	Cal Poly	1-0	0-0	−18.3	80.1	98.5	314
11	Long Beach State	0-0	0-0	−19.7	79.7	99.3	325
12	Cal State Bakersfield	1-0	0-0	−22.2	76.9	99.1	338