Cal Poly Mustangs
Next: vs Whittier · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-23
Net rating−18.3Rank 313 of 363 · offence 302, defence 308
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 10-23 (4 to 16 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-16
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs UC Mercednot Division I | Home | — | — | W 79-38 | |
| Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET | vs Whittiernot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET | at Idaho Staterank 197 | Away | 14% | 56-71 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET | vs Seattle Urank 329 | Home | 68% | 69-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at Idaho StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Seattle UA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumer LeeG · transfer from DePaul | 1 | 30.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −3.3 | −0.6 |
| Madison ButcherG | 1 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −4.5 | −1.2 |
| Gabby RobinsonG | 1 | 27.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −5.9 | −1.9 |
| Maddy TauroG · transfer from Fullerton | 1 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 |
| Dessi UlmerF | 1 | 24.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Ysabella Von SeiplerG · transfer from San Diego | 1 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Ella SkrzyniarzG | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −5.1 | −1.0 |
| Mecca AlexanderG · transfer from San José St | 1 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −5.0 | −0.8 |
| Jordan BillingG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.7 | −0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 133 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 139 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −18.3
- Last season's net rating
- −23.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 40%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.3
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.4 (rank 302)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 98.7 (rank 308)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.4 (rank 155)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.9 | 88.9 | 96 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.5 | 90.6 | 87.2 | 110 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.8 | 92.0 | 143 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 92.5 | 93.8 | 152 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 87.8 | 92.1 | 184 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.2 | 92.6 | 214 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.6 | 95.6 | 240 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.7 | 95.4 | 250 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.4 | 97.1 | 300 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.4 | 98.7 | 313 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 80.0 | 99.6 | 324 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 77.2 | 99.4 | 338 |