Seattle U Redhawks

Women's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UC Riverside · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

UC Riverside57%43%Seattle U

Projected 64-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament0%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-23

Net rating−20.3Rank 329 of 363 · offence 308, defence 333

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 8-23 (5 to 12 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field0%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at New Mexicorank 207	Away	6%	67-89	W 63-62	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs UC Riversiderank 250	Home	43%	64-67	—
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	at UC Santa Barbararank 144	Away	6%	55-77	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	at Cal Polyrank 313	Away	32%	62-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs UC RiversideA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at UC Santa BarbaraA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Cal PolyA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Claire FraserF · transfer from N Colorado	1	38.0	11.0	3.0	3.0	−5.9	−2.6
Cristina JonesF · transfer from Fullerton	1	36.0	12.0	10.0	2.0	+0.8	+1.9
Alanna NealeG · transfer from Nebraska	1	24.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.2
Gabriela Escorial FerreroF	1	23.0	8.0	8.0	3.0	−4.3	−0.9
Erin SellersG · transfer from UT Arlington	1	22.0	6.0	4.0	2.0	−5.1	−1.2
Shelley DucheminG · transfer from UC Riverside	1	22.0	10.0	4.0	1.0	−5.3	−1.3
Sophie BuzzardG · transfer from Portland St	1	21.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−8.1	−2.3
Milana NenadicF · transfer from Valparaiso	1	14.0	7.0	8.0	2.0	−5.6	−0.9

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.4%rank 77	44.1%rank 97	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.4%rank 97	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	36.3%rank 11	32.3%rank 64	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.4%rank 287	18.8%rank 48	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.1 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −24.3
Last season's net rating: −26.3
Last season's minutes returning: 7%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −8.5
Change since preseason: +4.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 80.0 (rank 308)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.3 (rank 333)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.0 (rank 102)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.6 (rank 171)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Santa Clara	1-0	0-0	+16.4	102.7	86.3	50
2	Portland	1-0	0-0	+8.3	95.1	86.8	87
3	Loyola Marymount	1-0	0-0	+5.6	97.1	91.5	98
4	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+1.7	93.1	91.4	123
5	Pepperdine	1-0	0-0	+1.2	89.8	88.7	130
6	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−3.2	89.8	93.0	180
7	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−8.5	84.7	93.2	215
8	Saint Mary's	0-1	0-0	−11.5	83.2	94.6	243
9	Denver	1-1	0-0	−12.4	83.7	96.0	260
10	Seattle U	1-0	0-0	−20.3	80.0	100.3	329