Denver Pioneers

Women's · West Coast Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Weber St · Sat 7 Nov, 6 PM ET

Denver33%67%Weber St

Projected 62-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22

Net rating−12.4Rank 261 of 363 · offence 262, defence 256

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 11-22 (6 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Air Forcerank 150	Away	22%	71-82	L 45-66	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Lindenwoodrank 242	Home	56%	63-61	W 66-52	Right
Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET	at Weber Staterank 239	Away	33%	62-68	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Colorado Staterank 93	Home	20%	56-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at Weber StateA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Colorado StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tori BakerG	2	36.5	16.0	5.0	1.0	−3.4	−0.8
Laia MonclovaG	2	36.0	10.0	8.5	2.0	−1.7	+0.3
Karolina PadillaG	2	30.5	11.5	2.0	2.0	−4.2	−1.1
Mallory McQuietorF · transfer from Incarnate Word	2	24.0	4.0	3.5	1.5	−2.8	−0.3
Brooke MurrellF	2	23.0	6.5	8.5	0.0	−0.6	+0.7
Emma HartG	2	19.0	3.5	1.5	1.5	−1.5	+0.2
Safiyah SugapongG	2	14.0	2.0	0.5	1.5	−1.2	+0.2
Ana CondeF	2	13.5	2.0	1.5	0.0	−3.5	−0.3
Lily EsparzaF	2	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.6	0.0
Lexi PletschetteG	2	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	−2.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.2%rank 321	43.7%rank 64	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 243	23.1%rank 290	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.0%rank 261	33.1%rank 108	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.9%rank 23	19.6%rank 96	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.7 points a game (they shot 20.5%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −11.3
Last season's net rating: −14.4
Last season's minutes returning: 66%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.5
Change since preseason: −1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.7 (rank 262)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.1 (rank 256)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 278)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.1 (rank 166)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Santa Clara	1-0	0-0	+16.4	102.8	86.4	50
2	Portland	1-0	0-0	+8.3	95.2	86.9	87
3	Loyola Marymount	1-0	0-0	+5.5	97.1	91.6	98
4	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+1.7	93.2	91.5	124
5	Pepperdine	1-0	0-0	+1.2	89.9	88.8	130
6	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−3.2	89.9	93.1	180
7	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−8.4	84.8	93.2	215
8	Saint Mary's	0-1	0-0	−11.4	83.2	94.7	243
9	Denver	1-1	0-0	−12.4	83.7	96.1	261
10	Seattle U	1-0	0-0	−20.3	80.1	100.4	329