Colorado State Rams

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Utah · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Colorado St30%70%Utah

Projected 61-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-10

Net rating+6.9Rank 93 of 363 · offence 123, defence 57

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-10 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 11.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lindenwoodrank 244	Home	87%	84-68	W 63-46	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Utahrank 81	Away	30%	61-68	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	at Denverrank 259	Away	79%	67-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at UtahA win: 19% · a loss: 16%+3 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at DenverA win: 17% · a loss: 16%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kloe FroebeG	1	39.0	13.0	8.0	5.0	+4.1	+4.3
Caitlin KramerG	1	39.0	14.0	11.0	3.0	−0.4	+1.2
Camryn RunnerG · transfer from Evansville	1	35.0	11.0	2.0	5.0	+2.2	+2.7
McKenna MurphyG	1	32.0	12.0	2.0	0.0	+2.2	+2.5
Heidur KarlsdottirF · transfer from Wyoming	1	20.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.4
Sophie SeneF · transfer from Utah State	1	16.0	4.0	6.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.9
Gianna SmithG	1	9.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−0.5	+0.3
Allie RodenG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.1
Olivia PawlickiF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.1
Bree BowmanG	1	2.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−1.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.9%rank 117	44.0%rank 109	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.7%rank 134	23.6%rank 248	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.6%rank 355	33.3%rank 132	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.9%rank 307	18.4%rank 22	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.5 points a game (they shot 39.1%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +5.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.6
Last season's net rating: +15.1
Last season's minutes returning: 23%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.5
Change since preseason: +1.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.2 (rank 123)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.2 (rank 57)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 344)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −11.2 (rank 200)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+17.9	102.3	84.4	43
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.4	100.9	85.5	57
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+6.9	92.2	85.2	93
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.8	95.6	90.8	101
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.7	92.2	91.6	134
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	90.7	92.2	153
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.9	86.3	94.2	211
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	84.9	94.0	224
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	82.9	97.3	283