Fresno State Bulldogs

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Colorado · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

Fresno St1%99%Colorado

Projected 50-80 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20

Net rating−9.1Rank 225 of 363 · offence 237, defence 211

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-20 (6 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Wed 4 Nov	vs UC Mercednot Division I	Home	—	—	W 94-32
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	at Coloradorank 36	Away	1%	50-80	—
Wed 11 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs New Mexicorank 208	Home	59%	67-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at ColoradoA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs New MexicoA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jada HunterG · transfer from Saint Mary's	1	26.0	6.0	4.0	6.0	−1.9	+0.1
Zawadi OgotG · transfer from LMU	1	24.0	14.0	0.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Mekhia ChaseG · transfer from North Texas	1	24.0	19.0	4.0	3.0	−0.7	+0.6
Ashlyn ReanF	1	23.0	11.0	15.0	3.0	−0.9	+0.5
Ava MarrG	1	23.0	13.0	4.0	2.0	−2.7	−0.2
Lola DonezG · transfer from California	1	20.0	9.0	3.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.5
Rubi GrayG · transfer from Sacramento St	1	20.0	18.0	5.0	2.0	−1.7	+0.2
Ivy BrownF · transfer from UT Rio Grande	1	16.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.2
Ryleigh SchoonoverF	1	8.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.1
Sienna ClarkG	1	6.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.1
Mylaena NortonG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.1
Ella BarmentlooF	1	3.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−2.9	0.0
Kenzie SirowichF	1	2.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−2.9	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −9.1
Last season's net rating: −0.2
Last season's minutes returning: 14%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 85.1 (rank 237)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.2 (rank 211)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.3 (rank 150)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+18.0	102.6	84.5	44
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.6	101.2	85.6	57
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	92.4	85.4	91
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.9	95.8	90.9	100
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.6	92.4	91.8	138
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	90.9	92.5	154
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.8	86.6	94.4	211
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	85.1	94.2	225
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	83.1	97.6	284