Colorado Buffaloes

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Fresno St · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

Fresno St1%99%Colorado

Projected 80-49 · Game page

Makes the tournament63%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 22-10

Net rating+20.9Rank 35 of 363 · offence 51, defence 24

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-10 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 6%
Average seed if in the field: 7.1
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field63%
Round of 3238%
Sweet 169%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs Morgan Staterank 347	Home	100%	87-44	W 83-38	Right
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	vs Fresno Staterank 224	Home	99%	80-49	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	at San Diego Staterank 57	Away	49%	66-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 63% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Fresno StateA win: 63% · a loss: 69%−7 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at San Diego StateA win: 68% · a loss: 58%+10 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mecailin MarshallG · transfer from Tulane	1	20.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	+2.7	+1.8
Logyn GreerF	1	19.0	12.0	6.0	0.0	+7.0	+3.2
Kira ReynoldsF · transfer from UT Arlington	1	18.0	9.0	7.0	3.0	+5.9	+2.6
Anete AdlerC · transfer from Boston U	1	17.0	9.0	1.0	2.0	+4.4	+2.0
Zyanna WalkerG	1	16.0	11.0	7.0	2.0	+7.8	+2.9
Maeve McErlaneG	1	16.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	+2.1	+1.2
Cail JahnkeG	1	16.0	11.0	4.0	2.0	+0.4	+0.8
Claire O'ConnorG	1	15.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+3.9	+1.6
Kennedy SandersG	1	15.0	7.0	5.0	4.0	+6.0	+2.2
Jade CrookC	1	13.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+4.9	+1.7
Sophie ZadelF	1	13.0	4.0	5.0	1.0	+2.7	+1.1
Brooke WalkerG · transfer from Utah	1	12.0	0.0	0.0	4.0	+4.1	+1.4
Lauren HarrisG	1	10.0	10.0	1.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.6%rank 68	42.7%rank 24	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 71	23.6%rank 238	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.2%rank 333	31.3%rank 30	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.9%rank 49	18.4%rank 23	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.5 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.7
Last season's net rating: +22.7
Last season's minutes returning: 44%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.2
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.8 (rank 51)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 79.9 (rank 24)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 216)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −25.3 (rank 266)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.0	109.5	79.4	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.6	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.2	100.7	81.4	38
8	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+18.4	99.0	80.6	41
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.1	81.8	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.8	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.5	86.0	69
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.4	97.8	88.4	81
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	95.8	90.4	100
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.4	93.4	160
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.2	94.1	172