Kansas Jayhawks

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Drake · Fri 6 Nov, 12 PM ET

Drake16%84%Kansas

Projected 77-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament25%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 17-15

Net rating+12.5Rank 70 of 363 · offence 69, defence 67

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (11 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field25%
Round of 3212%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Omaharank 317	Home	99%	85-50	W 66-48	Right
Fri 6 Nov12 PM ET	vs Drakerank 117	Home	84%	77-64	—
Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Oral Robertsrank 211	Home	96%	83-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 25% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs DrakeA win: 25% · a loss: 24%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Oral RobertsA win: 25% · a loss: 24%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Brittany HarshawG	1	34.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	+0.8	+1.8
Jaliya DavisF	1	29.0	20.0	8.0	1.0	+7.7	+5.2
S'Mya NicholsG	1	27.0	17.0	2.0	3.0	+7.5	+4.7
Regan WilliamsF	1	26.0	13.0	9.0	1.0	+2.5	+2.2
Libby FandelG	1	26.0	4.0	6.0	2.0	+0.3	+1.2
Anna GoodenG · transfer from Colorado	1	18.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+1.2	+1.1
Brooklynn RennF	1	15.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.9	+0.1
Mollie ErnstesG	1	15.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.9	+0.1
Tatyonna BrownF	1	7.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.6
Cydnee BryantC	1	3.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.8%rank 287	43.7%rank 68	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 74	24.0%rank 107	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.1%rank 307	34.1%rank 260	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.6%rank 28	19.5%rank 90	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.1 points a game (they shot 25.9%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.1
Last season's net rating: +19.8
Last season's minutes returning: 49%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.5
Change since preseason: −1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.7 (rank 69)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.2 (rank 67)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.8 (rank 225)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.8 (rank 239)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.7	79.6	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.5	80.0	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.2	81.0	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.8	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.6	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.5	83.7	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.3	82.0	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.9	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.7	86.2	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	97.0	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	98.0	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	96.0	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.5	93.6	162
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.3	173