Drake Bulldogs
Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating+2.4Rank 117 of 363 · offence 91, defence 195
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 14-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 14%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field15%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs Eastern Illinoisrank 299 | Home | 90% | 77-60 | W 76-54 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov12 PM ET | at Kansasrank 70 | Away | 16% | 64-77 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET | vs Cleveland Staterank 181 | Home | 76% | 73-64 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at KansasA win: 18% · a loss: 14%+4 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Cleveland StateA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna BeckerG | 1 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.4 | +1.8 |
| Mylea MonahanG | 1 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −0.3 | +0.8 |
| Mya CrawfordG | 1 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Karis FinleyF | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Brooklin DaileyG | 1 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Peyton McCabeG | 1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Quinn ViceF | 1 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +1.3 | +1.0 |
| Allie MyersF · transfer from Tarleton St | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 | +1.1 |
| Grace KnutsonG | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Alex CouchG | 1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Lexi CarlsenG | 1 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Maggie TaylorF | 1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.4 | +0.7 |
| Taedyn GrayF | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +1.2 | +0.2 |
| Grace FinchamG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.3%rank 257 | 45.5%rank 289 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.8%rank 55 | 23.5%rank 253 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.7%rank 65 | 31.6%rank 39 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 17.5%rank 361 | 18.9%rank 52 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.1 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +0.1
- Last season's net rating
- −5.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 69%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.3
- Change since preseason
- +2.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.8 (rank 91)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.5 (rank 195)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.8 (rank 116)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −16.6 (rank 226)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.6 | 100.8 | 90.2 | 73 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.2 | 93.4 | 90.2 | 111 |
| 3 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.4 | 95.8 | 93.5 | 117 |
| 4 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 92.3 | 90.6 | 124 |
| 5 | Illinois State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 96.0 | 94.6 | 127 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 89.8 | 92.0 | 165 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 88.9 | 93.2 | 186 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.1 | 98.4 | 289 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 84.5 | 99.9 | 290 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 83.2 | 102.0 | 316 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.7 | 74.6 | 99.3 | 345 |