Bradley Braves
Next: vs N Illinois · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 74-56 · Game page
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15
Net rating−2.2Rank 165 of 363 · offence 159, defence 161
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-15 (13 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Northern IllinoisA win: 6% · a loss: 5%+1 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: at IndianaA win: 7% · a loss: 6%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mya WardleG | 1 | 38.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | −0.7 | +1.0 |
| Ellie McDermidF | 1 | 37.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 |
| Alice VeilleuxG | 1 | 33.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.4 | +0.5 |
| Inia JonesG | 1 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Charia SmithF · transfer from Marquette | 1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 |
| Lila PosthumaG | 1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Kali FortsonF | 1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| Amani AbuhatabG | 1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
| Ashlee MonaghanF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
| Carlota Rey MartinezG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.6%rank 26 | 44.2%rank 105 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.1%rank 260 | 22.3%rank 335 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.0%rank 105 | 32.0%rank 49 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.7%rank 327 | 18.0%rank 11 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +9.3 points a game (they shot 11.1%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.4
- Last season's net rating
- +1.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 42%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- +1.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.8 (rank 159)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.0 (rank 161)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.7 (rank 235)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +12.9 (rank 65)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.6 | 100.8 | 90.2 | 73 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.2 | 93.4 | 90.2 | 111 |
| 3 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.4 | 95.8 | 93.5 | 117 |
| 4 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 92.3 | 90.6 | 124 |
| 5 | Illinois State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 96.0 | 94.6 | 127 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 89.8 | 92.0 | 165 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 88.9 | 93.2 | 186 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.1 | 98.4 | 289 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 84.5 | 99.9 | 290 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 83.2 | 102.0 | 316 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.7 | 74.6 | 99.3 | 345 |