Wisconsin Badgers

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Oakland · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Oakland4%96%Wisconsin

Projected 82-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16

Net rating+12.9Rank 67 of 363 · offence 42, defence 115

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-16 (12 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 324%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Bradleyrank 165	Home	92%	78-58	W 71-65	Right
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Oaklandrank 228	Home	96%	82-59	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Gramblingrank 321	Home	99%	85-52	—
Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Delawarerank 302	Home	99%	86-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs OaklandA win: 8% · a loss: 9%−1 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs GramblingA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs DelawareA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Addie DealG · transfer from Iowa	1	38.0	15.0	4.0	3.0	+4.7	+4.7
Teagan MallegniG · transfer from Iowa	1	31.0	17.0	6.0	4.0	+4.4	+3.7
Alicia CourthiauG	1	27.0	6.0	3.0	2.0	+0.3	+1.2
Adaline ShepleeG	1	25.0	16.0	3.0	0.0	+0.3	+1.1
Caia RoseG · transfer from Chattanooga	1	24.0	2.0	1.0	3.0	+3.6	+2.5
Laci SteeleG	1	20.0	6.0	4.0	3.0	+3.4	+2.0
Nikki KersteinPG	1	17.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	+1.0	+1.0
Giselle JanowskiG	1	10.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.5
Leah NordinG	1	8.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.2%rank 262	46.6%rank 335	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.3%rank 30	24.1%rank 102	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.0%rank 312	34.0%rank 258	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.0%rank 354	18.7%rank 41	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.3 points a game (they shot 31.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.1
Last season's net rating: +10.9
Last season's minutes returning: 43%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.2
Change since preseason: −1.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.4 (rank 42)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.5 (rank 115)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 235)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −2.2 (rank 142)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.8	71.9	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.1	73.2	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.5	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.6	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.8	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+32.0	109.9	77.9	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.4	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.2	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.1	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.5	78.9	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.4	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.0	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.7	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.9	102.4	89.5	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.1	96.1	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.3	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.9	90.6	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	92.9	92.0	132