Purdue Boilermakers

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs E Michigan · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

E Michigan8%92%Purdue

Projected 79-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-18

Net rating+5.7Rank 97 of 363 · offence 79, defence 144

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-18 (9 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record: 3-15
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 9.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs IU Indianapolisrank 195	Home	92%	91-71	W 81-73	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Eastern Michiganrank 232	Home	92%	79-61	Live
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Southeast Missouri Staterank 336	Home	98%	82-54	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Eastern MichiganA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Southeast Missouri StateA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kyndall HunterG · transfer from Houston	1	37.0	21.0	4.0	2.0	−0.3	+1.2
Jelena BulajicG · transfer from South Florida	1	37.0	17.0	7.0	6.0	+0.2	+1.6
Avery GordonC	1	28.0	16.0	8.0	0.0	+3.6	+3.0
Hannah WickstromG · transfer from UC Riverside	1	27.0	21.0	8.0	3.0	+5.8	+4.0
Taylor HendersonG	1	26.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1
Averi AaronF · transfer from Louisiana Tech	1	24.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	+1.6	+1.7
Keona DouwstraG	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Maya ZilbershlagNA	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Katka SedivaF	1	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Saige StahlF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.2
Anjela MinjaC	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.4%rank 82	44.8%rank 227	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.3%rank 332	23.2%rank 286	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.0%rank 105	33.5%rank 132	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	23.7%rank 11	24.9%rank 361	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.4 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.8
Last season's net rating: +12.6
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.3
Change since preseason: −3.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 97.0 (rank 79)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.4 (rank 144)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.7 (rank 123)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.8 (rank 165)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131