Oregon Ducks

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Washington St · Fri 6 Nov, 10 PM ET

Washington St1%99%Oregon

Projected 84-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament91%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 6% · projected 25-9

Net rating+29.4Rank 20 of 363 · offence 24, defence 11

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-9 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 4.0
A 1 seed: 6%

Makes the field91%
Round of 3281%
Sweet 1648%
Elite Eight18%
Final Four6%
Title game2%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Hawai'irank 142	Home	97%	91-64	W 87-54	Right
Fri 6 Nov10 PM ET	vs Washington Staterank 135	Home	99%	84-55	—
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	at Grand Canyonrank 132	Away	93%	79-60	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Vermontrank 95	Away	85%	73-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 91% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Washington StateA win: 91% · a loss: 87%+4 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at Grand CanyonA win: 91% · a loss: 88%+3 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at VermontA win: 91% · a loss: 87%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Katie FisoG	1	30.0	14.0	4.0	9.0	+10.1	+6.8
Mallory HeyerF	1	29.0	16.0	7.0	1.0	+1.5	+2.0
Ari LongG	1	28.0	14.0	5.0	3.0	+7.7	+5.1
Brooklynn HaywoodG	1	24.0	9.0	1.0	2.0	+1.6	+1.6
Avary CainG	1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+5.5	+3.3
Ehis EtuteF	1	20.0	15.0	14.0	1.0	+13.0	+5.6
Filippa TillianderF	1	12.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	+6.4	+1.9
Emilia KrstevskiC	1	10.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.8
Kennedy HolmanG	1	10.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.8
Hilary FullerF · transfer from Belmont	1	9.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+7.2	+1.6
La'u Pele FalateaG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.0	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.4%rank 251	44.1%rank 100	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.8%rank 55	24.5%rank 66	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.4%rank 38	33.1%rank 111	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.4%rank 281	20.7%rank 249	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.5 points a game (they shot 17.6%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +29.0
Last season's net rating: +29.5
Last season's minutes returning: 64%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.6
Change since preseason: +0.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.3 (rank 24)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 77.9 (rank 11)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.2 (rank 84)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +0.2 (rank 123)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131