Grand Canyon Lopes
Makes the tournament21%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-12
Net rating+0.8Rank 132 of 363 · offence 132, defence 138
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-12 (14 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 27%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 20%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field21%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Jackson Staterank 344 | Home | 98% | 79-50 | W 77-55 | Right |
| Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET | vs Oregonrank 20 | Home | 7% | 60-79 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs OregonA win: 22% · a loss: 21%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dasha BiriukG · transfer from Ohio State | 1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 | +1.8 |
| Nyadieng YiechF · transfer from Florida | 1 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | +2.9 | +2.2 |
| T'yana ToddG · transfer from Ohio State | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Maya FozG · transfer from Bradley | 1 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 |
| Jana SallmanC · transfer from William & Mary | 1 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Lanelle WrightG | 1 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Chloe MannG | 1 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Ines ZouniaG | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 |
| Ashlynn ChlarsonC · transfer from Arkansas | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.4 |
| Yasmeen SchmidtG | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
| Sifa InezaG | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Cora BennettF | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Kaitlyn ElsholzG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Keana FozG · transfer from Wagner | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.3 | −0.1 |
| Diamond WrightG | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| KJ McNealyG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.2%rank 310 | 43.6%rank 80 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.3%rank 90 | 21.9%rank 350 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.0%rank 104 | 32.1%rank 64 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.7%rank 59 | 22.8%rank 337 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.3 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +2.2
- Last season's net rating
- +4.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 31%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.4
- Change since preseason
- −1.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 91.6 (rank 132)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.8 (rank 138)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.0 (rank 96)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −24.4 (rank 264)
Mountain West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 96.4 | 94.6 | 123 |
| 2 | Grand Canyon | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.8 | 91.6 | 90.8 | 132 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 0-2 | 0-0 | +0.2 | 91.3 | 91.1 | 140 |
| 4 | Air Force | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 88.2 | 89.2 | 149 |
| 5 | UC Davis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 89.1 | 92.1 | 173 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 87.4 | 95.0 | 208 |
| 7 | Nevada | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 84.7 | 97.0 | 256 |
| 8 | Wyoming | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.3 | 82.1 | 96.4 | 282 |
| 9 | UTEP | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 83.3 | 97.9 | 285 |
| 10 | San José State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 78.8 | 95.5 | 300 |