UC Davis Aggies

Women's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at E Washington · Fri 6 Nov, 4 PM ET

UC Davis28%72%E Washington

Projected 63-72 · Game page

Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15

Net rating−3.0Rank 173 of 363 · offence 171, defence 174

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-15 (12 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 16%
Wins the conference tournament: 13%
Average seed if in the field: 14.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field13%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Jessupnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 82-42
Fri 6 Nov4 PM ET	at Eastern Washingtonrank 137	Away	28%	63-72	—
Sun 8 Nov5 PM ET	at Stanfordrank 63	Away	7%	58-79	—
Thu 12 Nov2 PM ET	vs Cal State Fullertonrank 242	Home	81%	73-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 13% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at Eastern WashingtonA win: 13% · a loss: 13%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at StanfordA win: 14% · a loss: 13%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Cal State FullertonA win: 13% · a loss: 13%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Avery SussexG	1	29.0	5.0	8.0	4.0	+1.4	+1.9
Marta ForslineF	1	29.0	11.0	8.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.3
Anna BassettG	1	26.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.3
Tegan YoungF	1	24.0	17.0	5.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.7
Sophie LentferG	1	24.0	7.0	9.0	3.0	−1.9	+0.1
Rebecca DonnellyG	1	24.0	16.0	2.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.4
Angeliki ZiakaG · transfer from Davidson	1	20.0	7.0	1.0	2.0	+1.8	+1.4
Emmy ErsdalaG	1	15.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.3
Holly EnsollC	1	9.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 143	44.6%rank 134	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 154	23.9%rank 129	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.4%rank 141	33.4%rank 137	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 139	20.4%rank 146	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.0
Last season's net rating: +0.1
Last season's minutes returning: 41%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.8
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.1 (rank 171)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.1 (rank 174)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.2 (rank 168)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNLV	0-1	0-0	+1.8	96.4	94.6	123
2	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+0.8	91.6	90.8	132
3	Hawai'i	0-2	0-0	+0.2	91.3	91.1	140
4	Air Force	1-0	0-0	−1.0	88.2	89.2	149
5	UC Davis	1-0	0-0	−3.0	89.1	92.1	173
6	New Mexico	0-1	0-0	−7.7	87.4	95.0	208
7	Nevada	0-1	0-0	−12.3	84.7	97.0	256
8	Wyoming	0-1	0-0	−14.3	82.1	96.4	282
9	UTEP	1-0	0-0	−14.7	83.3	97.9	285
10	San José State	0-1	0-0	−16.7	78.8	95.5	300