Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine

Women's · Mountain West Conference · 0-2, 0-0 in conference · last L2

Next game—None scheduled in the next week

Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15

Net rating0.0Rank 144 of 363 · offence 141, defence 145

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-15 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 23%
Wins the conference tournament: 18%
Average seed if in the field: 13.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field19%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Oregonrank 18	Away	3%	64-91	L 54-87	Right
Thu 5 Nov	at San Franciscorank 122	Away	39%	63-67	L 79-85	Right

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 19% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Bailey FlavellG	2	36.0	21.0	3.0	2.0	+0.7	+1.9
Ritorya TamiloC	2	33.0	20.5	15.5	0.5	+4.2	+3.8
Rebecca MoorsF	2	27.5	2.5	3.5	2.0	−0.6	+0.8
Teyahna BondG	2	26.0	6.5	2.0	2.5	−1.9	+0.1
Jovi LefotuG	2	25.0	4.0	2.5	4.0	−0.4	+0.8
Taryn BondG	2	19.0	4.0	2.0	1.5	−1.3	+0.3
Zyriah PriceF · transfer from Siena	2	15.0	4.5	3.0	0.0	−3.1	−0.3
Liz UdezeG	2	14.5	3.5	1.5	0.0	−1.1	+0.3
Jade PeacockG	2	10.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	+0.1	+0.4
Payton MillsF	1	8.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.2
Fiamma SerraF	2	2.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	+0.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.3%rank 97	43.1%rank 41	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 162	22.4%rank 322	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.4%rank 261	35.7%rank 339	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.3%rank 110	19.1%rank 56	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.8 points a game (they shot 27.6%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +2.0
Last season's net rating: +5.8
Last season's minutes returning: 54%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 91.4 (rank 141)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.4 (rank 145)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 277)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +15.6 (rank 61)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNLV	0-1	0-0	+1.8	96.6	94.8	124
2	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+0.9	91.9	91.0	132
3	Hawai'i	0-2	0-0	0.0	91.4	91.4	144
4	Air Force	1-0	0-0	−0.9	88.5	89.4	147
5	UC Davis	1-0	0-0	−3.0	89.3	92.3	172
6	New Mexico	0-1	0-0	−7.5	87.7	95.2	208
7	Nevada	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.8	97.2	257
8	Wyoming	0-1	0-0	−14.2	82.4	96.6	280
9	UTEP	1-0	0-0	−14.7	83.5	98.2	286
10	San José State	0-1	0-0	−16.9	78.9	95.8	302