New Mexico Lobos

Women's · Mountain West Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs New Mexico Highlands · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-18

Net rating−7.5Rank 208 of 363 · offence 194, defence 238

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-18 (8 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 15.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Seattle Urank 330	Home	94%	89-67	L 62-63	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs New Mexico Highlandsnot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov9:30 PM ET	at Fresno Staterank 225	Away	41%	63-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: at Fresno StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Savannah StrickerG	1	34.0	3.0	3.0	5.0	−3.0	−0.5
Laila AbdurraqibG	1	30.0	20.0	10.0	3.0	+0.1	+1.2
Kate WernliG	1	27.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	−2.8	−0.3
Gracie KelseyF · transfer from Lindenwood	1	25.0	10.0	7.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.2
Drew JordonG	1	24.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	−0.7	+0.6
Katie DuncanG	1	24.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	−2.8	−0.3
Mila ReynoldsF · transfer from UT Arlington	1	18.0	10.0	1.0	4.0	−2.9	−0.2
Keiara CurtisG · transfer from Hawai'i	1	13.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.6
Maya ThompsonG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.1%rank 248	45.4%rank 257	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 165	23.4%rank 254	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.1%rank 280	36.0%rank 345	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.1%rank 312	19.6%rank 81	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.9 expected (−0.9)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.3 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.6
Last season's net rating: +6.5
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.6
Change since preseason: −4.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 87.7 (rank 194)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.2 (rank 238)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 277)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −20.3 (rank 278)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNLV	0-1	0-0	+1.8	96.6	94.8	124
2	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+0.9	91.9	91.0	132
3	Hawai'i	0-2	0-0	0.0	91.4	91.4	144
4	Air Force	1-0	0-0	−0.9	88.5	89.4	147
5	UC Davis	1-0	0-0	−3.0	89.3	92.3	172
6	New Mexico	0-1	0-0	−7.5	87.7	95.2	208
7	Nevada	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.8	97.2	257
8	Wyoming	0-1	0-0	−14.2	82.4	96.6	280
9	UTEP	1-0	0-0	−14.7	83.5	98.2	286
10	San José State	0-1	0-0	−16.9	78.9	95.8	302