UTEP Miners

Women's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Incarnate Word · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

Incarnate Word52%48%UTEP

Projected 67-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20

Net rating−14.7Rank 285 of 363 · offence 267, defence 294

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-20 (6 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 15.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Western New Mexiconot Division I	Home	—	—	W 100-64
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	vs Incarnate Wordrank 212	Home	48%	67-67	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs New Mexico Staterank 304	Home	70%	69-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Incarnate WordA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs New Mexico StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mary Moses AmaniyoF	1	23.0	10.0	6.0	3.0	−0.4	+0.8
Zainab OlalekanF	1	23.0	19.0	7.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.3
Imani WarrenG · transfer from New Mexico St	1	20.0	10.0	0.0	3.0	−1.6	+0.2
Aolani WoldaiG	1	20.0	10.0	6.0	2.0	−5.9	−1.4
Isabel JoaoF	1	20.0	10.0	6.0	3.0	−2.9	−0.3
Krista LukasevicaF	1	20.0	14.0	5.0	1.0	−2.9	−0.3
Armanda SindalawaG	1	20.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	−2.9	−0.3
Tatiana CollazoG	1	17.0	13.0	1.0	0.0	−4.9	−0.9
Kobe JohnsonF	1	13.0	3.0	1.0	2.0	−2.8	−0.1
Apostolia ZormpalaG	1	13.0	6.0	3.0	1.0	−2.7	−0.1
Charlotte AldridgeG	1	11.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −14.7
Last season's net rating: −13.3
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.2
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.6 (rank 267)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.2 (rank 294)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.8 (rank 116)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNLV	0-1	0-0	+1.8	96.6	94.9	122
2	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+0.9	91.9	91.0	132
3	Hawai'i	0-2	0-0	+0.2	91.5	91.3	142
4	Air Force	1-0	0-0	−1.0	88.5	89.5	150
5	UC Davis	1-0	0-0	−3.0	89.4	92.4	175
6	New Mexico	0-1	0-0	−7.6	87.7	95.3	207
7	Nevada	0-1	0-0	−12.3	84.9	97.2	258
8	Wyoming	0-1	0-0	−14.2	82.4	96.6	282
9	UTEP	1-0	0-0	−14.7	83.6	98.2	285
10	San José State	0-1	0-0	−16.8	79.0	95.8	301