Cal State Fullerton Titans
Next: vs Westcliff · Sat 7 Nov, 5 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−11.0Rank 241 of 363 · offence 251, defence 243
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (9 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at San Diego Staterank 57 | Away | 5% | 69-92 | L 51-77 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Hope Internationalnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 90-59 | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs Westcliffnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov2 PM ET | at UC Davisrank 173 | Away | 19% | 61-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 12 Nov: at UC DavisA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan SwindleG | 2 | 34.0 | 23.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | −2.9 | −0.5 |
| Juliana AragonG | 2 | 32.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | −2.6 | −0.3 |
| Jana FalsdottirG | 2 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Ashari CassellG | 2 | 27.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Mimi MoonG | 2 | 21.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Bernadette CarranzaG | 2 | 19.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Talia MaxwellF | 2 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | +0.8 | +1.1 |
| Shadel FfrenchF | 2 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Anasia WilcoxC | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| Jennifer HawkinsF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.4%rank 304 | 45.5%rank 285 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.2%rank 23 | 22.9%rank 310 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 30.5%rank 358 | 32.8%rank 98 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.7%rank 58 | 16.7%rank 3 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.6 points a game (they shot 18.8%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.0
- Last season's net rating
- −3.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 41%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.4 (rank 251)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.4 (rank 243)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.7 (rank 45)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.4 (rank 54)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.7 | 88.7 | 96 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.5 | 90.5 | 87.0 | 110 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.6 | 91.8 | 142 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 92.3 | 93.6 | 151 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 87.7 | 91.9 | 186 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.0 | 92.4 | 215 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.4 | 95.4 | 241 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.5 | 95.2 | 252 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.3 | 96.9 | 299 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.2 | 98.5 | 313 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.8 | 99.5 | 325 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 77.0 | 99.2 | 338 |