UC San Diego Tritons
Makes the tournament25%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 25-8
Net rating+3.4Rank 108 of 363 · offence 151, defence 81
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 25-8 (20 to 30 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 17-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 30%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 24%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field25%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Washingtonrank 24 | Away | 3% | 67-93 | L 63-79 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET | vs San Diegorank 217 | Neutral | 78% | 69-59 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov2 PM ET | vs Portland Staterank 327 | Home | 97% | 77-52 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs San DiegoA win: 26% · a loss: 25%+1 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Portland StateA win: 25% · a loss: 24%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coryn WattsG · transfer from Denver | 1 | 38.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +0.6 | +1.9 |
| Erin CondronF | 1 | 31.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +4.5 | +3.8 |
| Dymonique MaxieG | 1 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| Sadie SinG | 1 | 25.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Alexandra CumminsG · transfer from San José St | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Lev FeimanG | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +2.1 | +1.4 |
| Emma CookG | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Rosa SmithG | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| Noelle MulvannyG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Megan RobertsG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Jite GbemuotorF · transfer from CSU Northridge | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +3.3 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.4%rank 87 | 44.9%rank 215 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.3%rank 30 | 24.9%rank 61 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 30.5%rank 351 | 34.2%rank 270 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 17.4%rank 358 | 18.8%rank 42 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.7 points a game (they shot 30.8%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +2.3
- Last season's net rating
- +5.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 57%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −7.0
- Change since preseason
- +1.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 90.6 (rank 151)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 87.1 (rank 81)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.3 (rank 65)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +26.7 (rank 23)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.8 | 88.8 | 94 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 90.6 | 87.1 | 108 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.7 | 91.9 | 145 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.4 | 92.4 | 93.8 | 151 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 87.9 | 90.9 | 171 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.2 | 92.5 | 215 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 84.5 | 95.6 | 241 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.6 | 95.3 | 248 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.4 | 97.0 | 300 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.4 | 98.7 | 315 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.9 | 99.6 | 325 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 77.1 | 99.3 | 340 |