Washington Huskies

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Pacific · Thu 5 Nov, 10 PM ET

Pacific2%98%Washington

Projected 82-52 · Game page

Makes the tournament74%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 2% · projected 21-10

Net rating+26.6Rank 24 of 363 · offence 29, defence 19

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-10 (17 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 6.0
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field74%
Round of 3257%
Sweet 1622%
Elite Eight7%
Final Four2%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UC San Diegorank 110	Home	97%	93-67	W 79-63	Right
Thu 5 Nov10 PM ET	vs Pacificrank 180	Home	98%	82-52	—
Thu 12 Nov10 PM ET	vs Cal State Bakersfieldrank 338	Home	100%	89-42	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 74% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs PacificA win: 74% · a loss: 81%−7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sayvia SellersG	1	33.0	25.0	11.0	10.0	+8.2	+6.2
Avery HowellG	1	33.0	22.0	7.0	2.0	+8.1	+6.2
Brynn McGaughyF	1	27.0	13.0	15.0	2.0	+6.3	+4.2
Kaelyn CarrollF · transfer from Kentucky	1	23.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+4.9	+2.9
Tilda TryggerF · transfer from NC State	1	22.0	8.0	13.0	1.0	+6.7	+3.5
Devin CoppingerG	1	22.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	+3.5	+2.2
Amayah GarciaG	1	22.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.3
Brooke CarlsonG · transfer from Colorado St	1	13.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+4.3	+1.5
Macey HuardG	1	3.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.1
Daniella McLeanF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0
Petra TomanG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.9%rank 126	45.5%rank 283	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.8%rank 311	22.2%rank 340	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.3%rank 87	30.8%rank 14	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.5%rank 339	17.3%rank 4	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −10.8 points a game (they shot 39.4%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: 0.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +27.8
Last season's net rating: +30.6
Last season's minutes returning: 52%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.6
Change since preseason: −1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.6 (rank 29)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 79.0 (rank 19)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.6 (rank 249)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +3.5 (rank 97)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131