Michigan State Spartans

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Toledo · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Michigan St88%12%Toledo

Projected 75-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament52%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-11

Net rating+23.8Rank 28 of 363 · offence 33, defence 26

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-11 (15 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.2
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field52%
Round of 3235%
Sweet 168%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Valparaisorank 345	Home	100%	95-46	W 98-44	Right
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	at Toledorank 141	Away	88%	75-60	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Oaklandrank 229	Home	99%	87-53	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 52% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at ToledoA win: 52% · a loss: 52%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs OaklandA win: 52% · a loss: 51%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kennedy BlairG	1	21.0	12.0	5.0	9.0	+11.8	+5.5
Tabitha BetsonF · transfer from Colorado	1	21.0	6.0	7.0	2.0	+5.4	+3.0
Monique BobongieG	1	21.0	9.0	4.0	3.0	+1.1	+1.3
Emma BrolironG	1	20.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	+1.1	+1.2
Anna WypychG · transfer from Butler	1	19.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	+4.6	+2.4
Kathy-Emma OttoF	1	19.0	13.0	7.0	1.0	+1.2	+1.2
Theryn HallockG	1	17.0	12.0	2.0	3.0	+8.2	+3.3
Amy TerrianG	1	16.0	15.0	3.0	0.0	+7.3	+2.9
Sara SambolicG	1	14.0	6.0	0.0	2.0	+5.8	+2.1
Anna TerrianG	1	12.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+5.2	+1.7
Lilly WilliamsC	1	12.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.8
Uche KaineF	1	5.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.3
Alie BisballeF · transfer from Wisconsin	1	3.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+3.6	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.4%rank 36	43.0%rank 33	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 135	25.4%rank 33	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.7%rank 269	31.7%rank 46	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.0%rank 99	19.5%rank 89	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +10.5 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.8
Last season's net rating: +34.0
Last season's minutes returning: 29%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.5
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.2 (rank 33)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 80.3 (rank 26)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.9 (rank 41)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −24.7 (rank 263)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.7	71.8	3
2	Ohio State	2-0	0-0	+40.9	110.5	69.6	4
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.8	114.2	78.4	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	109.8	75.5	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.3	112.0	78.7	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.8	77.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.3	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.1	77.8	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.0	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.4	78.8	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.8	104.2	80.3	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.2	104.9	81.7	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.3	102.0	83.6	42
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.3	89.5	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.0	87.0	84
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	96.8	91.2	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.8	90.5	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	92.8	91.9	131