Northwestern Wildcats

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Xavier · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Xavier25%75%Northwestern

Projected 71-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20

Net rating+4.0Rank 103 of 363 · offence 99, defence 129

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-20 (8 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 9.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Milwaukeerank 285	Home	95%	79-57	W 64-60	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Xavierrank 148	Home	75%	71-62	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at UICrank 182	Away	56%	67-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs XavierA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at UICA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Casey HarterG	1	40.0	16.0	1.0	4.0	−0.1	+1.5
Lily CarmodyG · transfer from Boston College	1	37.0	21.0	5.0	6.0	+0.6	+1.9
Camdyn NelsonG · transfer from Syracuse	1	33.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	+0.4	+1.5
Jasmyn Cooper-DerbaF · transfer from Syracuse	1	32.0	12.0	12.0	4.0	+3.2	+3.1
Lexi BlueG · transfer from Kentucky	1	27.0	2.0	5.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.9
Kat RigheimerG	1	20.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.8
Brooke GoldenF	1	11.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 113	46.1%rank 305	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.1%rank 250	22.0%rank 343	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.4%rank 263	32.3%rank 91	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.2%rank 57	19.9%rank 102	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −15.0 points a game (they shot 64.3%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.0
Last season's net rating: +2.6
Last season's minutes returning: 39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.1
Change since preseason: −2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 94.6 (rank 99)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.5 (rank 129)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 241)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.5 (rank 244)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+45.3	116.7	71.3	2
2	Ohio State	2-0	0-0	+41.0	110.7	69.6	4
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+36.0	114.3	78.2	6
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.6	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.8	13
6	Iowa	2-0	0-0	+32.5	109.3	76.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	16
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	18
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.1	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.7	105.6	78.9	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.4	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.4	105.1	81.8	29
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.7	42
14	Wisconsin	2-0	0-0	+15.3	103.3	88.0	60
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.2	96.2	87.0	82
16	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.0	94.6	90.5	103
17	Purdue	2-0	0-0	+1.8	96.0	94.2	124
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+1.3	93.0	91.6	129