Minnesota Golden Gophers

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Marquette · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

Minnesota92%8%Marquette

Projected 77-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.1

Wins the national title3%Final Four 16% · projected 27-6

Net rating+35.9Rank 7 of 363 · offence 6, defence 16

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (23 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 3.1
A 1 seed: 15%

Makes the field99%
Round of 3294%
Sweet 1672%
Elite Eight38%
Final Four16%
Title game7%
Champion3%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Harvardrank 59	Home	91%	87-69	W 82-62	Right
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	at Marquetterank 92	Away	92%	77-58	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Southernrank 267	Home	100%	89-44	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 15% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at MarquetteA win: 15% · a loss: 13%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Grace GrocholskiG	1	34.0	20.0	6.0	5.0	+10.7	+7.9
Natalie KussowG	1	32.0	9.0	4.0	3.0	+2.1	+2.4
Mara BraunG	1	31.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	+9.9	+6.7
Leah HarmonG · transfer from UCF	1	30.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	+5.5	+4.2
Tayla ThomasF · transfer from Northwestern	1	21.0	13.0	10.0	0.0	+6.0	+3.1
Gracie MerkleC · transfer from Penn State	1	18.0	22.0	7.0	0.0	+11.8	+4.5
Tori OehrleinG	1	14.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	+2.5	+1.2
Kennedy KlickG	1	8.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	+8.1	+1.5
Makena ChristianG	1	8.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+8.9	+1.6
Brynn SendenG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+7.5	+0.2
Zoey BershersC	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+7.6	+0.2
Adit KuolF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.1
Kylee PabenF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.4%rank 249	44.7%rank 130	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.0%rank 259	23.5%rank 246	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.9%rank 57	35.9%rank 345	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	23.4%rank 17	18.6%rank 34	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.5 points a game (they shot 29.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +34.2
Last season's net rating: +36.8
Last season's minutes returning: 53%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.6
Change since preseason: +1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.4 (rank 6)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 78.6 (rank 16)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 296)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +15.3 (rank 55)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131