Southern Jaguars
Makes the tournament29%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−13.0Rank 269 of 363 · offence 302, defence 191
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (13 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 14-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 41%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 29%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field29%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Oklahoma Staterank 22 | Away | 1% | 63-98 | L 39-81 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | at Illinoisrank 13 | Away | 0% | 45-89 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Minnesotarank 6 | Away | 0% | 44-89 | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniya ThorntonG | 1 | 32.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Dalayja Hurt-FloydG · transfer from Alcorn St | 1 | 31.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.4 | −1.3 |
| Zaria HurstonF | 1 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.5 |
| Alisha NunleyG · transfer from Old Dominion | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Taniya LawsonG | 1 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Anaja HallC | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Diamond HunterG | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Aubri WilkinsG | 1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.3 |
| Aaliyah ScottG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 42.8%rank 333 | 45.2%rank 243 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.7%rank 148 | 24.0%rank 133 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.6%rank 307 | 34.7%rank 297 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.9%rank 321 | 20.8%rank 220 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.8 points a game (they shot 27.6%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.8
- Last season's net rating
- −4.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 47%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.4
- Change since preseason
- −3.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.3 (rank 302)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.4 (rank 191)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.3 (rank 150)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +28.5 (rank 21)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 80.3 | 93.4 | 269 |
| 2 | Alabama A&M | 0-2 | 0-0 | −16.3 | 80.8 | 97.1 | 297 |
| 3 | Grambling | 0-2 | 0-0 | −16.3 | 76.8 | 93.2 | 297 |
| 4 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-2 | 0-0 | −19.5 | 79.4 | 98.9 | 323 |
| 5 | Bethune-Cookman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −21.5 | 76.2 | 97.6 | 336 |
| 6 | Alcorn State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.1 | 76.3 | 98.4 | 339 |
| 7 | Florida A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.6 | 77.5 | 100.2 | 341 |
| 8 | Jackson State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −24.6 | 78.2 | 102.9 | 345 |
| 9 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −26.5 | 75.3 | 101.8 | 351 |
| 10 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −28.6 | 72.7 | 101.3 | 354 |
| 11 | Prairie View A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −31.4 | 71.9 | 103.3 | 360 |
| 12 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −33.0 | 71.3 | 104.3 | 361 |