Alcorn State Lady Braves

Women's · Southwestern Athletic Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Mississippi U for Women · Wed 11 Nov, 7 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-15

Net rating−21.2Rank 335 of 363 · offence 343, defence 290

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-15 (10 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 15.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Ole Missrank 26	Away	0%	57-98	L 38-80	Right
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Mississippi U for Womennot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jazlyn JohnsonG	1	26.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	−4.8	−1.2
Chrishunti WalkerF	1	25.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−4.8	−1.2
Lauren NelsonF	1	25.0	6.0	3.0	4.0	−5.0	−1.3
Jae'la SmithG	1	25.0	8.0	1.0	1.0	−2.7	−0.2
Dekyra MitchellG	1	22.0	1.0	4.0	2.0	−2.7	−0.2
Jada MorganG	1	20.0	8.0	3.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.2
Arene IyekekpolorF	1	16.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−5.3	−0.9
Ariyah BurkeG	1	14.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−5.7	−0.9
Fatime SeckG · transfer from SE Louisiana	1	13.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−5.0	−0.7
Frances AnyakudoF	1	11.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−5.2	−0.6
Milaan MooreF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−5.5	−0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.4%rank 301	44.2%rank 112	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.4%rank 335	23.7%rank 229	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.1%rank 299	35.3%rank 323	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.0%rank 240	21.4%rank 289	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.5 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −19.8
Last season's net rating: −16.3
Last season's minutes returning: 35%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.4
Change since preseason: −1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 76.3 (rank 343)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.6 (rank 290)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 236)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +25.5 (rank 25)

Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Alabama A&M	0-1	0-0	−11.8	82.4	94.2	254
2	Southern	0-1	0-0	−12.9	80.3	93.2	267
3	Grambling	0-1	0-0	−19.4	77.0	96.4	322
4	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0-2	0-0	−19.4	79.4	98.8	323
5	Alcorn State	0-1	0-0	−21.2	76.3	97.6	335
6	Florida A&M	0-1	0-0	−22.5	77.5	100.0	339
7	Jackson State	0-2	0-0	−24.5	78.2	102.7	344
8	Alabama State	0-1	0-0	−25.5	75.1	100.6	349
9	Mississippi Valley State	0-1	0-0	−27.0	73.1	100.1	352
10	Bethune-Cookman	1-0	0-0	−27.2	73.7	100.9	353
11	Prairie View A&M	1-0	0-0	−31.4	71.8	103.2	361
12	Texas Southern	0-1	0-0	−33.0	71.2	104.2	362