Alabama State Lady Hornets
Next: at West Georgia · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 60-75 · Game page
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20
Net rating−25.5Rank 349 of 363 · offence 347, defence 338
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-20 (7 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Auburnrank 61 | Away | 1% | 60-92 | L 35-84 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at West Georgiarank 269 | Away | 12% | 60-75 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET | vs Talladeganot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at West GeorgiaA win: 2% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londyn WalkerG · transfer from NC A&T | 1 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −6.4 | −2.3 |
| Alanah PoolerF | 1 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −5.1 | −1.4 |
| Ny'Keria FlowersG | 1 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −6.7 | −1.9 |
| Rachel GriffinF · transfer from NC A&T | 1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −5.4 | −1.2 |
| Charlese McClendonF | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.5 |
| Takya Walters-NormanG | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.9 | −0.8 |
| McKayla TaylorC | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.3 | −0.6 |
| Elliott JessupF · transfer from NC A&T | 1 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | −1.1 |
| Kaleigh HeywoodG | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.2 | −0.5 |
| Karrell GreeneG | 1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.3 |
| Caylee SimpsonG | 1 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
| Morghan SlaterG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.2 |
| Aamori DanielsG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 42.7%rank 343 | 46.0%rank 311 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.1%rank 322 | 24.3%rank 81 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.6%rank 71 | 35.1%rank 314 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.2%rank 235 | 24.5%rank 358 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −6.0 points a game (they shot 38.1%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −21.4
- Last season's net rating
- −16.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 46%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.9
- Change since preseason
- −4.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 75.2 (rank 347)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.8 (rank 338)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.5 (rank 59)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.2 (rank 56)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 82.5 | 94.4 | 252 |
| 2 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 80.4 | 93.4 | 267 |
| 3 | Grambling | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 77.2 | 96.5 | 320 |
| 4 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-2 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 79.5 | 98.9 | 322 |
| 5 | Alcorn State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −21.3 | 76.5 | 97.8 | 334 |
| 6 | Florida A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.5 | 77.6 | 100.2 | 339 |
| 7 | Jackson State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −24.5 | 78.3 | 102.8 | 344 |
| 8 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −25.5 | 75.2 | 100.8 | 349 |
| 9 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −27.0 | 73.3 | 100.2 | 352 |
| 10 | Bethune-Cookman | 1-0 | 0-0 | −27.2 | 73.9 | 101.1 | 353 |
| 11 | Prairie View A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −31.4 | 72.0 | 103.4 | 361 |
| 12 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −33.0 | 71.4 | 104.4 | 363 |