Auburn Tigers

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Southern Miss · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Southern Miss4%96%Auburn

Projected 79-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament14%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 17-15

Net rating+15.2Rank 61 of 363 · offence 72, defence 43

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (12 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field14%
Round of 327%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Alabama Staterank 349	Home	99%	92-60	W 84-35	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Southern Missrank 208	Home	96%	79-54	Live
Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET	vs Furmanrank 234	Home	98%	78-52	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 14% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Southern MissA win: 14% · a loss: 14%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs FurmanA win: 14% · a loss: 14%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Danielle OshoF · transfer from Miami	1	29.0	16.0	5.0	3.0	+2.5	+2.4
Zahara BishopG · transfer from Seton Hall	1	24.0	13.0	5.0	1.0	+3.8	+2.5
Sania RichardsonG	1	23.0	11.0	6.0	5.0	+2.7	+2.0
Jessica PetersonF · transfer from Miami	1	21.0	12.0	8.0	0.0	+4.6	+2.5
Ja'Mia HarrisG	1	20.0	5.0	1.0	4.0	+3.8	+2.1
Phoenix StotijnG · transfer from Indiana	1	20.0	4.0	6.0	4.0	+1.0	+1.1
Ashley KnoxG	1	20.0	9.0	1.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.9
Savannah ScottC · transfer from UCF	1	19.0	10.0	7.0	0.0	+4.2	+2.1
Syriah DanielsG	1	11.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+3.1	+1.0
Kaitlyn DuhonG	1	8.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+7.5	+1.4
Zaniyah WilliamsG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.2
Eva GarabadianG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.0%rank 53	42.7%rank 21	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.3%rank 281	25.1%rank 42	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.1%rank 52	34.6%rank 294	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	24.5%rank 4	20.2%rank 127	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.5 points a game (they shot 17.6%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.0
Last season's net rating: +10.3
Last season's minutes returning: 41%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.5
Change since preseason: +4.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.0 (rank 72)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.8 (rank 43)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 319)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −25.5 (rank 260)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.2	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.3	77.2	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.5	78.7	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	76.0	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.4	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.7	77.9	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.6	82.6	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.8	80.3	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.0	104.3	82.3	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.7	79.0	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	102.1	84.7	45
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.7	105.8	89.1	49
13	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	98.0	82.8	61
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.8	87.0	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	96.0	86.8	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.2	91.6	90