Missouri Tigers

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Little Rock · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Missouri77%23%Little Rock

Projected 75-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating+7.6Rank 90 of 363 · offence 64, defence 152

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (10 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 9.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Howardrank 118	Home	84%	90-76	W 91-88	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	at Little Rockrank 230	Away	77%	75-65	—
Mon 9 Nov12 PM ET	vs Tennessee Techrank 276	Home	96%	86-62	—
Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs UT Martinrank 237	Home	94%	84-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at Little RockA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Tennessee TechA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs UT MartinA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
McKenzie MathurinG · transfer from Michigan	1	41.0	29.0	5.0	2.0	+4.5	+5.1
Nevaeh CaffeyG · transfer from Indiana	1	34.0	17.0	2.0	0.0	+2.3	+2.8
Khloe FordF	1	34.0	15.0	15.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.2
Tanyuel WelchG · transfer from Arizona	1	33.0	14.0	5.0	0.0	+1.8	+2.5
Grace SlaughterG	1	28.0	7.0	7.0	3.0	+4.2	+3.4
Natalya HodgeG	1	24.0	4.0	6.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.2
Abbey SchreackeG	1	15.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+1.5	+1.0
Ellie MullerF	1	13.0	2.0	6.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.2
Averi KroenkeG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.3%rank 320	46.3%rank 323	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.7%rank 137	22.6%rank 323	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.8%rank 120	34.9%rank 309	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.7%rank 26	21.0%rank 268	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.0 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.3
Last season's net rating: +10.7
Last season's minutes returning: 34%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.9
Change since preseason: −2.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 99.2 (rank 64)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.6 (rank 152)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.0 (rank 41)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +2.3 (rank 104)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.2	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.3	77.2	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.5	78.7	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	76.0	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.4	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.7	77.9	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.6	82.6	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.8	80.3	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.0	104.3	82.3	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.7	79.0	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	102.1	84.7	45
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.7	105.8	89.1	49
13	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	98.0	82.8	61
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.8	87.0	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	96.0	86.8	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.2	91.6	90