Little Rock Trojans

Women's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Missouri · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Missouri78%22%Little Rock

Projected 64-75 · Game page

Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20

Net rating−9.9Rank 232 of 363 · offence 244, defence 219

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-20 (6 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 14.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field3%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Central Baptistnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 108-12
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Missourirank 88	Home	22%	64-75	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	at Memphisrank 187	Away	26%	61-71	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs North Floridarank 228	Home	62%	68-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 3% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs MissouriA win: 4% · a loss: 3%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at MemphisA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs North FloridaA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Payton FutchG	1	22.0	18.0	2.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.2
Aaliyah TaylorG	1	20.0	9.0	5.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Talia KempG · transfer from Mercer	1	16.0	6.0	1.0	2.0	−1.5	+0.2
Pearson McVayF	1	16.0	8.0	6.0	2.0	−2.0	0.0
Malon SmithG	1	16.0	5.0	6.0	6.0	−1.6	+0.2
Blessing TeamerF	1	15.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.2
Mya CottoG	1	15.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.1
Lidia Belmonte HurtadoF	1	15.0	10.0	3.0	3.0	−1.9	+0.1
Neso AnisiobiF	1	15.0	8.0	4.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.2
Tyla FautuaF · transfer from Pacific	1	14.0	8.0	6.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.1
Rakiya NelsonF	1	13.0	5.0	4.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Senoj JonesF · transfer from New Mexico St	1	12.0	10.0	7.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Brenna BurkG	1	11.0	8.0	1.0	5.0	−1.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −9.9
Last season's net rating: −8.2
Last season's minutes returning: 42%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.2
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 84.6 (rank 244)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.5 (rank 219)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 217)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Abilene Christian	1-0	0-0	+7.7	96.0	88.3	89
2	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+2.5	92.3	89.8	117
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	+0.6	89.5	88.9	137
4	Eastern Kentucky	0-1	0-0	−3.5	93.2	96.7	181
5	UT Arlington	1-1	0-0	−9.1	87.7	96.8	223
6	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.2	83.5	92.6	226
7	Little Rock	1-0	0-0	−9.9	84.6	94.5	232
8	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−12.8	86.8	99.6	265
9	North Alabama	0-2	0-0	−13.4	78.6	92.0	271