Abilene Christian Wildcats

Women's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Hou Christian · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Abilene Chrstn89%11%Hou Christian

Projected 70-53 · Game page

Makes the tournament47%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 27-6

Net rating+7.7Rank 89 of 363 · offence 88, defence 93

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (21 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 60%
Wins the conference tournament: 45%
Average seed if in the field: 13.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field47%
Round of 323%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Howard Paynenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 108-32
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Houston Christianrank 306	Away	89%	70-53	—
Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET	at UT Rio Grande Valleyrank 205	Away	71%	70-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 47% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at Houston ChristianA win: 48% · a loss: 45%+2 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at UT Rio Grande ValleyA win: 48% · a loss: 47%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Erin WoodsonG	1	25.0	12.0	5.0	3.0	+3.9	+2.8
Payton HullG	1	24.0	20.0	2.0	0.0	+4.8	+3.0
Samara MorrowG	1	22.0	8.0	4.0	7.0	−1.1	+0.4
Natalia ChavezG	1	21.0	8.0	3.0	3.0	+2.0	+1.6
Riley GrohmanG	1	20.0	15.0	2.0	5.0	−0.6	+0.6
Emma TroxellF	1	19.0	16.0	3.0	0.0	+2.5	+1.6
Molly DaughertyG	1	18.0	10.0	2.0	3.0	−1.4	+0.2
Raimi McCraryF · transfer from Incarnate Word	1	15.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.5
Meredith MayesC	1	13.0	5.0	5.0	3.0	+7.1	+2.2
Salena CarrascoG	1	12.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.3
Aimee FlippenC	1	11.0	7.0	4.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 135	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 140	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +7.7
Last season's net rating: +6.2
Last season's minutes returning: 84%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.0 (rank 88)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.3 (rank 93)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 262)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Abilene Christian	1-0	0-0	+7.7	96.0	88.3	89
2	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+2.5	92.2	89.7	116
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	+0.6	89.5	88.8	135
4	Eastern Kentucky	0-1	0-0	−3.5	93.2	96.7	182
5	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.2	83.4	92.6	224
6	Little Rock	1-0	0-0	−9.9	84.5	94.4	230
7	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−13.1	86.3	99.4	268
8	UT Arlington	0-1	0-0	−14.6	83.0	97.5	284
9	North Alabama	0-1	0-0	−16.4	78.1	94.5	295