Austin Peay Governors

Women's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Southeastern Baptist · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament18%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-10

Net rating+0.7Rank 133 of 363 · offence 164, defence 101

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-10 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 18%
Wins the conference tournament: 16%
Average seed if in the field: 13.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field18%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Campbellrank 287	Away	48%	72-73	W 62-47	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Southeastern Baptistnot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	at UCFrank 161	Away	42%	63-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 18% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: at UCFA win: 18% · a loss: 18%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jim'Miyah BrantonG	1	29.0	8.0	3.0	4.0	+2.6	+2.5
Kiara CroskeyG	1	29.0	7.0	2.0	3.0	−1.4	+0.4
Clearia PetersonF · transfer from Alabama St	1	28.0	12.0	11.0	0.0	+1.1	+1.6
Veronaye CharltonG	1	25.0	17.0	0.0	4.0	+1.9	+1.8
Tish BlackwoodG	1	20.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.3
Brilee PriceG	1	19.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.3
Jasia RossG	1	19.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.3
Jade RuckerG	1	18.0	9.0	1.0	2.0	−0.1	+0.6
Andrea GuilfordG	1	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.2
Franziska KellyG	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.1%rank 99	44.4%rank 128	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.2%rank 20	27.8%rank 5	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.6%rank 133	34.0%rank 259	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.9%rank 305	20.5%rank 234	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.8 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +4.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −4.6
Last season's net rating: +1.2
Last season's minutes returning: 28%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.3
Change since preseason: +5.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.3 (rank 164)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.6 (rank 101)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 344)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.8 (rank 227)

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Abilene Christian	1-0	0-0	+7.7	95.8	88.1	89
2	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+2.5	92.0	89.5	116
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	+0.7	89.3	88.6	133
4	Eastern Kentucky	0-1	0-0	−3.5	93.0	96.5	182
5	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.3	83.2	92.5	225
6	Little Rock	1-0	0-0	−9.9	84.3	94.2	231
7	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−13.0	86.2	99.2	267
8	UT Arlington	0-1	0-0	−14.6	82.8	97.4	284
9	North Alabama	0-1	0-0	−16.3	78.0	94.3	295