Central Arkansas Sugar Bears

Women's · United Athletic Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Baylor · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

C Arkansas5%95%Baylor

Projected 56-80 · Game page

Makes the tournament25%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-11

Net rating+2.5Rank 116 of 363 · offence 125, defence 117

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-11 (14 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 29%
Wins the conference tournament: 23%
Average seed if in the field: 13.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field25%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Hendrixnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 97-40
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	at Baylorrank 27	Away	5%	56-80	—
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	at UL Monroerank 273	Away	74%	68-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 25% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at BaylorA win: 27% · a loss: 25%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at UL MonroeA win: 25% · a loss: 26%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jenna CookG	1	26.0	5.0	3.0	3.0	+1.5	+1.7
Paris SantacaterinaG	1	24.0	10.0	5.0	3.0	+1.2	+1.5
Laylah ReeseG	1	21.0	17.0	9.0	4.0	+1.9	+1.6
Faith McCallopG	1	21.0	6.0	5.0	6.0	−1.0	+0.4
Linda AmaningF	1	19.0	10.0	8.0	1.0	+0.8	+1.0
Tiani EllisonF · transfer from East Texas A&M	1	18.0	17.0	11.0	2.0	+2.0	+1.4
Avery MierF	1	18.0	8.0	5.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.4
Layla-J CameronG · transfer from Tulsa	1	15.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.5
Emerie BohanonG	1	15.0	12.0	3.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.4
Alexis CoxG	1	14.0	6.0	5.0	3.0	−0.3	+0.5
Sami ShaefferG	1	6.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.2
Alivia CoxF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 135	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 140	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +2.5
Last season's net rating: +6.1
Last season's minutes returning: 59%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.5
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.2 (rank 125)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.7 (rank 117)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.6 (rank 250)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Abilene Christian	1-0	0-0	+7.7	96.0	88.3	89
2	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+2.5	92.2	89.7	116
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	+0.6	89.5	88.8	135
4	Eastern Kentucky	0-1	0-0	−3.5	93.2	96.7	182
5	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.2	83.4	92.6	224
6	Little Rock	1-0	0-0	−9.9	84.5	94.4	230
7	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−13.1	86.3	99.4	268
8	UT Arlington	0-1	0-0	−14.6	83.0	97.5	284
9	North Alabama	0-1	0-0	−16.4	78.1	94.5	295