UT Arlington Mavericks

Women's · United Athletic Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Lamar · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Lamar66%34%UT Arlington

Projected 62-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-21

Net rating−14.6Rank 284 of 363 · offence 282, defence 289

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-21 (5 to 15 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Sacramento Staterank 186	Home	56%	66-63	L 61-67	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Lamarrank 160	Home	34%	62-68	Live
Tue 10 Nov8:30 PM ET	at Wyomingrank 282	Away	35%	61-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs LamarA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at WyomingA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Chelsea BishopG	1	31.0	10.0	3.0	4.0	−3.8	−0.9
Ava RaymondG	1	26.0	11.0	6.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.7
Amaya WilliamsG	1	24.0	0.0	5.0	2.0	−3.7	−0.7
Jalyn BrownG · transfer from Michigan St	1	22.0	13.0	2.0	0.0	+3.4	+2.2
Nisaa MuhammadG · transfer from Old Dominion	1	22.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−3.9	−0.7
Journee HamptonG	1	22.0	13.0	1.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.6
Amiyah ReynoldsG	1	21.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	−4.5	−0.9
Morane DossouF · transfer from New Mexico St	1	20.0	3.0	5.0	1.0	−3.4	−0.5
Faith CarsonF · transfer from Grand Canyon	1	8.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.1
Liz MurphyG · transfer from Akron	1	4.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−2.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.0%rank 328	45.6%rank 293	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.3%rank 270	24.7%rank 63	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.7%rank 128	35.2%rank 321	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 118	24.5%rank 357	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.4 points a game (they shot 17.6%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −3.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −11.0
Last season's net rating: −7.6
Last season's minutes returning: 10%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.9
Change since preseason: −3.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 82.9 (rank 282)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.5 (rank 289)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.0 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.2 (rank 154)

United Athletic Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Abilene Christian	1-0	0-0	+7.7	95.9	88.2	89
2	Central Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+2.5	92.2	89.6	116
3	Austin Peay	1-0	0-0	+0.7	89.4	88.7	133
4	Eastern Kentucky	0-1	0-0	−3.5	93.1	96.6	182
5	Tarleton State	1-0	0-0	−9.2	83.3	92.5	225
6	Little Rock	1-0	0-0	−9.9	84.4	94.3	231
7	West Georgia	0-1	0-0	−13.0	86.3	99.3	268
8	UT Arlington	0-1	0-0	−14.6	82.9	97.5	284
9	North Alabama	0-1	0-0	−16.3	78.0	94.4	295