North Alabama Lions
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-21
Net rating−16.4Rank 295 of 363 · offence 331, defence 216
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-21 (6 to 16 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Mississippi Staterank 36 | Away | 1% | 52-86 | L 27-68 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Ole Missrank 26 | Away | 0% | 44-84 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | at Jacksonville Staterank 246 | Away | 26% | 56-65 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at Jacksonville StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venla UlanderC | 1 | 25.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.7 | −0.7 |
| Amy KurkowskiF · transfer from Saint Mary's | 1 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Greta RamonG | 1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −6.6 | −1.6 |
| Emma D'esteC | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| Maria StefancovaG | 1 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| Brynn LusbyF · transfer from Incarnate Word | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| Ella MacleodG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.2 |
| Joceline GearaG · transfer from N'Western St | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.3 |
| MarcKalia CelestineC · transfer from Prairie View | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −7.1 | −1.2 |
| Olivia TredreaG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Vera GunaydinG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
| Phoebe HolmesG · transfer from Xavier | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.2 |
| Zamyra WallaceG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 41.3%rank 361 | 44.2%rank 103 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 26.9%rank 359 | 24.5%rank 69 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 36.6%rank 8 | 34.4%rank 280 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.8%rank 265 | 19.1%rank 64 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.2 points a game (they shot 21.1%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.4
- Last season's net rating
- −7.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 12%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.6
- Change since preseason
- −2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 78.2 (rank 331)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 94.5 (rank 216)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 196)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +20.6 (rank 33)
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.7 | 96.1 | 88.4 | 89 |
| 2 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.5 | 92.3 | 89.8 | 116 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 89.5 | 88.9 | 134 |
| 4 | Eastern Kentucky | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.5 | 93.3 | 96.8 | 182 |
| 5 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 83.5 | 92.7 | 224 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.9 | 84.6 | 94.5 | 230 |
| 7 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 86.4 | 99.5 | 269 |
| 8 | UT Arlington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.6 | 83.0 | 97.6 | 284 |
| 9 | North Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.4 | 78.2 | 94.5 | 295 |