Ole Miss Rebels

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs North Alabama · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

North Alabama0%100%Ole Miss

Projected 84-44 · Game page

Makes the tournament66%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 21-10

Net rating+25.5Rank 26 of 363 · offence 27, defence 25

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-10 (17 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.0
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field66%
Round of 3246%
Sweet 1613%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Alcorn Staterank 334	Home	100%	98-57	W 80-38	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs North Alabamarank 295	Home	100%	84-44	Live
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs UAlbanyrank 187	Home	98%	79-50	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 66% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: vs UAlbanyA win: 66% · a loss: 72%−6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jaida CivilG · transfer from Tennessee	1	33.0	17.0	6.0	5.0	+5.8	+4.8
Jada RichardG · transfer from LSU	1	27.0	14.0	3.0	3.0	+7.8	+4.9
Rachael OkokohF · transfer from Penn State	1	25.0	8.0	8.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.3
Talaysia CooperG · transfer from Tennessee	1	22.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	+10.1	+4.9
Jade TillmanG · transfer from UMBC	1	22.0	14.0	11.0	3.0	+4.4	+2.6
Doneelah WashingtonF · transfer from Illinois St	1	22.0	6.0	5.0	0.0	+7.0	+3.7
Lauren JacobsG	1	20.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	+4.3	+2.4
Knisha GodfreyG · transfer from Florida	1	15.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	+3.4	+1.5
Maya AndersonG · transfer from San José St	1	11.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.3
Charleen HudsonG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.3%rank 258	43.5%rank 56	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.6%rank 128	25.4%rank 29	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.3%rank 42	32.2%rank 59	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.4%rank 73	20.0%rank 122	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.3 points a game (they shot 8.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +24.0
Last season's net rating: +32.0
Last season's minutes returning: 3%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +11.4
Change since preseason: +1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.8 (rank 27)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 80.3 (rank 25)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.1 (rank 183)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −21.3 (rank 249)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.2	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.3	77.2	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.5	78.7	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	76.0	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.4	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.7	77.9	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.6	82.6	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.8	80.3	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.0	104.3	82.3	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.7	79.0	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	102.1	84.7	45
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.7	105.8	89.1	49
13	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	98.0	82.8	61
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.8	87.0	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	96.0	86.8	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.2	91.6	90