Texas A&M Aggies

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Louisiana · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET

Louisiana5%95%Texas A&M

Projected 78-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16

Net rating+9.8Rank 78 of 363 · offence 82, defence 78

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-16 (12 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 3-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 9.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluffrank 323	Home	99%	95-62	W 77-54	Right
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET	vs Louisianarank 239	Home	95%	78-55	—
Sat 7 Nov12 PM ET	vs LSU New Orleansrank 358	Home	100%	91-50	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs LouisianaA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kailyn GilbertG · transfer from LSU	1	33.0	30.0	11.0	6.0	+4.6	+4.1
Rieyan DeSouzeG	1	31.0	3.0	2.0	4.0	−1.4	+0.5
Miyah VerseF · transfer from Georgia	1	28.0	13.0	6.0	1.0	+5.1	+3.7
Emerald ParkerC	1	27.0	10.0	8.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.9
Chaney SpencerG	1	27.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	−1.0	+0.6
Anita FranchiniF	1	19.0	4.0	9.0	2.0	+1.3	+1.2
Janae KentG	1	17.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+2.4	+1.4
Kaniya BoydG · transfer from Tennessee	1	12.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	+4.0	+1.4
Pien SteenbergenG	1	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.8%rank 128	45.4%rank 278	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.0%rank 249	23.4%rank 265	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.8%rank 24	31.5%rank 37	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	17.6%rank 357	19.4%rank 88	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.9 points a game (they shot 21.4%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +12.4
Last season's net rating: +14.0
Last season's minutes returning: 39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.8
Change since preseason: −2.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.6 (rank 82)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.8 (rank 78)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.3 (rank 145)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −19.4 (rank 246)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	5
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.3	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.0	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.6	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.0	104.2	82.2	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	46
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.6	105.6	89.0	50
13	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	61
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.0	91.5	90