Arkansas Razorbacks

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N'Western St · Fri 6 Nov, 11:30 AM ET

N'Western St5%95%Arkansas

Projected 79-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-15

Net rating+9.4Rank 81 of 363 · offence 86, defence 74

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-15 (10 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 3-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 9.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field6%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs LSU New Orleansrank 357	Home	98%	98-69	W 127-48	Right
Fri 6 Nov11:30 AM ET	vs Northwestern Staterank 251	Home	95%	79-56	—
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Kansas Cityrank 276	Home	97%	83-57	—
Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluffrank 323	Home	99%	84-53	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 6% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Northwestern StateA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Kansas CityA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Arkansas-Pine BluffA win: 6% · a loss: 5%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Emily RobinsonG	1	25.0	6.0	6.0	4.0	+2.7	+2.4
Jianna MorrisG · transfer from Louisiana Tech	1	20.0	9.0	1.0	4.0	+3.3	+2.1
Kyiah PrestridgeG	1	20.0	22.0	12.0	6.0	+0.2	+0.9
Kateri PooleG · transfer from Houston	1	19.0	10.0	2.0	4.0	+0.6	+1.0
Beautiful WaheedG · transfer from St John's	1	17.0	10.0	4.0	1.0	+4.6	+2.2
Whitley RogersG	1	16.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	+0.2	+0.7
D'Asia Thomas-HarrisG · transfer from Georgia Tech	1	15.0	12.0	5.0	1.0	+4.0	+1.8
Grace McCallopG · transfer from California	1	15.0	2.0	4.0	4.0	+2.7	+1.4
Ayianna JohnsonF	1	13.0	23.0	4.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.6
Daniah TrammellF · transfer from Arizona	1	12.0	17.0	3.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.1
Allannah OrsbyG	1	11.0	2.0	1.0	3.0	+0.3	+0.5
Adriana ReijnenF	1	10.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.5
Julija MaticG	1	7.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.2%rank 52	43.6%rank 76	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.7%rank 148	28.4%rank 4	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.6%rank 34	32.2%rank 85	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.7%rank 215	24.9%rank 358	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.0 points a game
Opponents' free throws: +1.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +2.5
Last season's net rating: +6.8
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.7
Change since preseason: +6.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.1 (rank 86)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.7 (rank 74)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 76.9 (rank 4)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −30.2 (rank 294)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.1	3
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.2	117.3	77.1	5
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+35.9	114.9	79.0	7
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	76.0	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.3	10
6	Kentucky	2-0	0-0	+32.1	106.3	74.2	15
7	Tennessee	2-0	0-0	+26.1	108.7	82.6	25
8	Alabama	3-0	0-0	+24.9	106.1	81.2	26
9	Ole Miss	2-0	0-0	+22.6	103.3	80.7	31
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+21.5	100.3	78.8	34
11	Georgia	2-0	0-0	+18.4	101.4	83.0	43
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.8	105.8	89.0	50
13	Auburn	2-0	0-0	+11.5	93.6	82.1	70
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.8	86.9	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.4	96.1	86.7	81
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.7	99.2	91.5	88