Northwestern State Lady Demons
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−11.9Rank 251 of 363 · offence 278, defence 232
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (10 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Ecclesianot Division I | Home | — | — | W 120-40 | |
| Fri 6 Nov11:30 AM ET | at Arkansasrank 81 | Away | 5% | 56-79 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov11 AM ET | at Oklahoma Staterank 22 | Away | 0% | 47-86 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Louisiana Techrank 93 | Away | 8% | 53-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at ArkansasA win: 5% · a loss: 6%−2 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Louisiana TechA win: 6% · a loss: 6%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stella AllisonG | 1 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Chloe DonnellG · transfer from South Alabama | 1 | 27.0 | 46.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| KP ParrG · transfer from Texas St | 1 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Becca MilonF · transfer from Monmouth | 1 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| Stephie SalumuG | 1 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Erica CarrC · transfer from San Diego | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Payton MillerG | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Karma WynnG | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Delora PricopC | 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Cimiya RideauxC | 1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 148 | 44.7%rank 141 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 167 | 23.9%rank 138 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.3%rank 147 | 33.3%rank 147 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 147 | 20.8%rank 154 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.9
- Last season's net rating
- −3.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.0
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 83.1 (rank 278)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.0 (rank 232)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.9 (rank 300)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.5 | 92.0 | 127 |
| 2 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 87.4 | 94.5 | 204 |
| 3 | Incarnate Word | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 87.3 | 95.7 | 216 |
| 4 | Lamar | 1-1 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 88.2 | 97.1 | 220 |
| 5 | Northwestern State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.9 | 83.1 | 95.0 | 251 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 81.8 | 93.9 | 254 |
| 7 | McNeese | 2-0 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 80.2 | 92.6 | 257 |
| 8 | East Texas A&M | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 84.0 | 96.4 | 261 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 85.3 | 99.4 | 279 |
| 10 | Houston Christian | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 76.0 | 93.8 | 308 |
| 11 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.3 | 77.3 | 98.5 | 334 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-2 | 0-0 | −30.2 | 74.3 | 104.6 | 357 |