Probable StatsCollege basketball, rated
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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 9:50 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders

Women's · Southland Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-22
Net rating−21.3Rank 334 of 363 · offence 336, defence 304

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons
Projected record
10-22 (4 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record
6-16
Wins or shares the conference title
<1%
Wins the conference tournament
1%
Average seed if in the field
—
A 1 seed
0%
  1. Makes the field1%
  2. Round of 320%
  3. Sweet 160%
  4. Elite Eight0%
  5. Final Four0%
  6. Title game0%
  7. Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game
DateOpponentWhereWin chanceProjectedResultPick
Wed 4 Novvs Our Lady of the Lakenot Division IHome——W 76-36
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ETat Baylorrank 27Away0%44-88—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days
  1. No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement
PlayerGamesMinutesPointsReboundsAssistsRatingValue
Laura Frances WillisG125.08.06.08.0−3.6−0.6
Naiya CarneyG124.010.04.03.0−3.6−0.6
Chelsy SingletonG123.06.03.00.0−3.6−0.6
Sille-Liis MolderG120.011.05.04.0−3.5−0.5
Rayna WilliamsF117.011.04.03.0−5.8−1.1
Asha WalkerG116.06.02.00.0−6.1−1.1
Lori ZlatoperF116.02.00.00.0−3.4−0.4
Andjela MarojevicF · transfer from Utah State113.06.03.00.0−4.2−0.5
Caitlin LordF113.05.02.01.0−3.4−0.3
Andrea ChiquembaF · transfer from Bellarmine110.03.01.00.0−8.5−1.1
Valeria MartinezG110.02.05.01.0−3.2−0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

OffenceDefenceLeague
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin44.7%rank 14844.7%rank 14144.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin23.9%rank 16723.9%rank 13823.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin33.3%rank 14733.3%rank 14733.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin20.8%rank 14720.8%rank 15420.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team
−30−20−100+101 NovNow−21.3−30−20−100+101 NovNow−21.3
Preseason net rating
−21.3
Last season's net rating
−23.9
Last season's minutes returning
25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes
−5.4
Change since preseason
0.0
Offence, points per 100 possessions
77.3 (rank 336)
Defence, points allowed per 100
98.5 (rank 304)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
72.4 (rank 253)
Schedule so far, opponents' average
—

Southland Conference by rating

12 teams
#TeamRecordConferenceNetOffenceDefenceNational rank
1Stephen F. Austin1-00-0+1.593.592.0127
2UT Rio Grande Valley1-00-0−7.287.494.5204
3Incarnate Word1-00-0−8.487.395.7216
4Lamar1-10-0−8.988.297.1220
5Northwestern State1-00-0−11.983.195.0251
6Nicholls1-10-0−12.181.893.9254
7McNeese2-00-0−12.480.292.6257
8East Texas A&M1-10-0−12.484.096.4261
9SE Louisiana1-10-0−14.185.399.4279
10Houston Christian1-10-0−17.976.093.8308
11Texas A&M-Corpus Christi1-00-0−21.377.398.5334
12LSU New Orleans0-20-0−30.274.3104.6357