Lamar Cardinals

Women's · Southland Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at UT Arlington · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Lamar66%34%UT Arlington

Projected 68-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament23%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-10

Net rating−2.1Rank 162 of 363 · offence 175, defence 144

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (16 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 28%
Wins the conference tournament: 22%
Average seed if in the field: 14.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field23%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Louisiana Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	W 104-35
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	at UT Arlingtonrank 284	Away	66%	68-62	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	at Texas Techrank 48	Away	7%	55-76	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Arlington Baptistnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 23% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at UT ArlingtonA win: 23% · a loss: 22%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at Texas TechA win: 24% · a loss: 23%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kamryn WilsonG	1	27.0	6.0	6.0	3.0	+0.3	+1.2
Shaila FormanG	1	26.0	9.0	4.0	5.0	−0.1	+0.9
Jada GravesG	1	25.0	9.0	1.0	7.0	−1.8	+0.2
Brooklyn AlexanderF · transfer from Memphis	1	22.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	−1.8	+0.2
Kennedi AlexanderG · transfer from Memphis	1	22.0	24.0	8.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.6
Jacei DenleyG	1	20.0	11.0	2.0	1.0	+1.4	+1.3
Solenne OlengaF	1	17.0	16.0	6.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.5
Jordan PeteG	1	16.0	10.0	0.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.2
Larissa HubbardG	1	14.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.2
Kyndall RobertsG	1	11.0	8.0	5.0	2.0	−1.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −2.1
Last season's net rating: −1.2
Last season's minutes returning: 56%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.3 (rank 175)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.4 (rank 144)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 278)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Southland Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Stephen F. Austin	1-0	0-0	+1.5	93.5	92.0	125
2	Lamar	1-0	0-0	−2.1	89.3	91.4	162
3	UT Rio Grande Valley	1-0	0-0	−7.2	87.4	94.6	205
4	Incarnate Word	1-0	0-0	−8.3	87.4	95.7	212
5	McNeese	1-0	0-0	−8.5	84.8	93.4	216
6	Nicholls	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.4	94.8	245
7	Northwestern State	1-0	0-0	−11.9	83.2	95.0	253
8	East Texas A&M	1-1	0-0	−12.3	84.1	96.4	260
9	SE Louisiana	1-1	0-0	−14.1	85.4	99.4	280
10	Houston Christian	1-1	0-0	−17.8	76.1	93.9	306
11	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	1-0	0-0	−21.3	77.3	98.6	333
12	LSU New Orleans	0-2	0-0	−30.8	74.2	105.0	358